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    City collapse: What do the numbers say?

    City collapse: What do the numbers say?
    sbonsi / Shutterstock.com
    12/18/2024 2373

    The collapse of Manchester City remains one of the most talked about topics in sports this month.

    While the absence of Rodri is a clear reason why they’ve faltered, there is more to it than simply one player missing.

    The numbers tell us a pretty interesting story and we’re going to go over all the relevant stats, analysing City’s collapse through numbers. Ultimately, football is a game of numbers, it’s all about points, goals and clean sheets, and there is a clear trend to observe here.

    Early season

    The early season went well for City. They were at the top of the table for the first few rounds with some promising results overall.

    It wasn’t until matchday 10 that City lost a match, and by that time they had seven wins and two draws in nine matches. The goal difference at that time was 20-10. They were scoring two goals per match and conceding one - not perfect but good enough.

    The cracks appear

    Manchester City’s struggles didn’t happen immediately after Rodri went down.

    This happened in the draw against Arsenal which was matchday five, but it took about five more matches for the cracks to appear. After losing to Bournemouth in matchday 10, City went on to lose three more before finally winning again.

    After that, they added a couple more poor results, culminating in a recent shocking loss to Manchester United. During these final seven matches in the Premier League, City’s goal difference was 8-14, quite a dramatic shift compared to the early part of the season.

    So, what changed?

    Meaning behind the numbers

    The difference between the early part of the season and recent times is pretty simple to observe.

    City are scoring much less now compared to before and conceding more, albeit some of those numbers are a bit inflated due to the 0-4 loss to Tottenham.

    The scoring has been a more massive problem and was particularly evident against Juventus in the Champions League. They were the more active and arguably better side but failed to score a goal. Chances weren’t lacking, but Haaland and company simply struggled to put the ball behind the keeper.

    Even in the most recent match against United, the team could have scored more than one goal but failed to do so before collapsing entirely in the end. That lack of scoring has impacted the overall confidence of the team which is the main culprit of why they are struggling.

    Rodri… or something else?

    The reasons for this epic collapse are multiple.

    Part of it is missing Rodri, who was arguably the key player both for attack and defence. It could have been overcome if they remained confident as a squad because they did fine without him in the first games after his injury.

    With time and a few bad losses, the confidence of the team waned and it’s pretty clear in everything.

    They are weaker in the duels and Haaland looks like a shadow of himself. The manager is to blame as well because Guardiola hasn’t shown an ability to pull his team out of this dark stretch which ultimately will ruin their season.

    So as always in football, it’s somewhat complex but also rather simple, and the numbers back it up.

    Home team
    Away team
    Probability %
    1X2
    Pred
    Correct score
    Avg. goals
    Weather conditions
    Coef.
    Score
    Live
    coef.
    EPL
    363331
    12-1
    2 - 1
    2.96
    11°
    +220
    +220 +275 +110 no no no
    FT
    2 - 1(1 - 0)
    -
    - - -

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    OVERALL TABLE
    OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
    1
    		 Manchester City 15 5 5 0 0 8
    2
    		 Arsenal 12 5 4 0 1 4
    3
    		 Brighton 10 5 3 1 1 11
    4
    		 Brentford 9 5 2 3 0 6
    5
    		 Leeds United 9 5 2 3 0 4
    6
    		 Liverpool 9 5 2 3 0 3
    7
    		 Everton 9 5 2 3 0 3
    8
    		 Hull City 8 5 2 2 1 2
    9
    		 Newcastle United 8 5 2 2 1 0
    10
    		 Chelsea 7 5 2 1 2 -2
    11
    		 Ipswich Town 6 5 2 0 3 -4
    12
    		 Manchester United 5 5 1 2 2 0
    13
    		 Nottingham Forest 5 5 1 2 2 -1
    14
    		 Sunderland 4 5 1 1 3 -4
    15
    		 Crystal Palace 4 5 1 1 3 -5
    16
    		 Aston Villa 4 5 1 1 3 -5
    17
    		 Bournemouth 3 5 0 3 2 -2
    18
    		 Coventry City 3 5 1 0 4 -9
    19
    		 Fulham 2 5 0 2 3 -3
    20
    		 Tottenham 2 5 0 2 3 -6
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