St Pauli Out to Halt Slide Against High-Scoring RB Leipzig

St Pauli vs RB Leipzig - 01/27/2026

DATE_FORMAT_LC5 3878

The Millerntor-Stadion sets the stage as St Pauli look to arrest a challenging run when they welcome Bundesliga high-flyers RB Leipzig. With both sides coming off contrasting form patterns, the tactical chess match between Alexander Blessin and Ole Werner should provide intrigue for the neutral observer.

Recent History

St Pauli have enjoyed relative success in their most recent home matches against RB Leipzig, registering one win and a draw in the last two encounters at the Millerntor-Stadion. Remarkably, they have not been beaten in those two, suggesting the venue can pose genuine trouble for Leipzig. However, when broadening the scope, the last four overall meetings have seen St Pauli lose twice, with two of the three most recent ending in defeats by a margin of two or more goals.

Recent Form

The home side's recent form leaves plenty of questions. Across their last six matches in all competitions, St Pauli have picked up only one win, with three draws cushioning the blow of two defeats. They have scored just one goal on average per game in this span and conceded at an average of 1.17.

At home, the numbers bring little consolation. Over the last three matches at Millerntor, they have a record of one win, one draw, and one defeat, netting a low 0.67 goals and conceding the same, with a slightly improved possession average of 46%.

For RB Leipzig, it has been feast or famine. Their last six matches show three wins and three defeats, but they carry an impressive scoring rate at 2.33 goals per game, despite conceding 1.83. On their travels, the Red Bulls are less consistent, winning exactly half of their last 14, but still managing to score at promising rates and hold solid possession totals.

Overall Performance

St Pauli's league campaign has been difficult to say the least. Sitting 17th after 18 rounds with just three wins, four draws, and 11 losses, their minus 15 goal difference reflects key struggles in both penalty areas. Averaging less than a goal scored per match while conceding nearly twice as many puts heavy pressure on their defensive line.

In stark contrast, Leipzig occupy fifth place and are a genuine top-four challenger. Eleven wins, two draws and five defeats from their 18 matches, plus 36 goals scored for a robust two per game, reinforce their reputation as one of the Bundesliga’s most dynamic attacking teams.

Main Trends

The trends are troublesome for St Pauli: winless in 16 of their last 20 home Bundesliga matches and in 16 of their most recent 20 overall. They have drawn three of their last six but lost 67% of their last twelve league games. At Millerntor, they have lost 50% of their last 20 league fixtures.

Leipzig offer an opposite pattern. They have won 58% of their last 12 overall, and half of their last six away. Seven big-margin wins in their last 12 matches indicate their ability to dominate. Clean sheets have come in 40% of their last 30 away days, and they are often potent in attack, averaging over four shots on target and more than 50% possession away from home.

Probable Lineups

St Pauli (likely 3-4-1-2):

Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj

Defenders: Karol Mets, Hauke Wahl, Adam Dzwigala

Midfielders: Lars Ritzka, Eric Smith, James Sands, Arkadiusz Pyrka

Attackers: Joel Chima Fujita, Mathias Pereira Lage, Ricky-Jade Jones

Connor Metcalfe is sidelined with fitness concerns and will not feature.

RB Leipzig (likely 4-3-3):

Goalkeeper: Péter Gulácsi

Defenders: Willi Orbán, Castello Lukeba, Ridle Baku, David Raum

Midfielders: Nicolas Seiwald, Christoph Baumgartner, El Chadaille Bitshiabu

Attackers: Rômulo, Yan Diomande, Antonio Nusa

Xaver Schlager (fitness) and Kevin Kampl (special leave) are both unavailable, which will shift Baumgartner and Seiwald into more prominent midfield roles.

Prediction

RB Leipzig's attacking depth and strong away trends should prove too much for St Pauli, who continue to struggle both home and away. Recent home resilience against Leipzig will be put to the test against one of the league’s sharpest attacks. The probability points towards a narrow victory for RB Leipzig, with under 2.5 goals predicted and a 50% chance of a 1-0 away win.

Leipzig’s firepower and St Pauli’s inability to turn draws into wins underline a forecast of slim margins. Leipzig to edge it and keep pace near the Bundesliga summit.

Equipo local
Equipo visitante

Probabilidad %

1X2

Pred.

Marcador Pred.

Promedio de goles

Tiempo

Cuota

Marcador

Cuota
en vivo

De1

St Pauli RB Leipzig 27/01/2026 20:30

331850

20-1

0 - 1

1.89

21°F

-125

+310 +270 -125 up up up

FT

1 - 1(0 - 0)

-

- - -