AZ Alkmaar Seek to Extend Strong Home Run Against Up-and-Down Excelsior

АЗ Алкмаар - Екселсиор - 01/21/2026

19 Ян 2026 1877

AZ Alkmaar sit poised in the Eredivisie mid-table, looking to turn solid numbers into a genuine charge upwards as they host Excelsior at the AFAS Stadion. Patterns from their recent meetings and statistical undercurrents suggest an intriguing duel, with both teams keen on finding stability at this crucial point of the campaign.

Taking a closer look at the recent history between these sides, AZ Alkmaar have asserted themselves against Excelsior by avoiding defeat in all of their last three clashes, earning two wins and a draw. Interestingly, in the most recent five head-to-head matches, AZ have come away with three victories and managed to win by two or more goals on three of those occasions.

AZ Alkmaar head into this tie with a record over their last six league matches that reads three wins, a draw, and two defeats. The team has maintained an average of 2.33 goals per match, while conceding just 1.17. When focusing on their performances at home, the stats look even stronger, with two wins and a draw in their last three AFAS Stadion outings, without conceding a single goal, and again netting 2.33 goals per game.

One of AZ's defining traits at home has been defensive solidity and control. Across their last 12 home league matches, they have gone undefeated in 11, and have kept five clean sheets in their last 12 in all competitions. This run is further supported by a lengthy set of matches without losing by more than a single goal margin on home turf, and by dominant possession figures—averaging just under 55% at the AFAS Stadion.

The broader season view has AZ Alkmaar in 8th, with eight wins, four draws, and six losses across 18 games. Their tally of 33 goals for and 31 against offers a positive goal difference—evidence of the attacking edge they consistently bring, but also the defensive lapses that have marked their campaign.

Excelsior enter this fixture positioned 14th in the Eredivisie table, with a record of six wins, two draws, and ten defeats. Their negative goal difference of minus fifteen and a season average of just 1.06 goals scored per match display struggles on both ends of the pitch.

Form-wise, Excelsior mirror AZ with three wins, one draw, and two losses over their last six outings, but have allowed 1.83 goals per match during that span. The away record is particularly concerning—Excelsior haven't won in eight of their last ten on the road in all competitions, with four of those losses coming by two or more goals.

The underlying numbers show that Excelsior generate fewer shots and goal opportunities. While AZ average around 18 shots and nearly 8 on target per home game, Excelsior manage just over 10 total shots and fewer than four on target per away fixture. Possession is another marker of difference, with Excelsior’s 47.5% average possession trailing AZ’s numbers considerably.

For this match, AZ Alkmaar are without Jordy Clasie, Mexx Meerdink, Andrea Natali, and Sven Mijnans. Their probable starting eleven, based on recent lineups and available players, appears set for a 4-2-3-1 formation as follows:

AZ Alkmaar

Goalkeeper: Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro

Defenders: Wouter Goes, Alexandre Penetra, Mateo Chávez, Mees de Wit

Midfielders: Peer Koopmeiners, Weslley Patati, Isak Jensen, Kees Smit

Attackers: Troy Parrott

Excelsior will be missing Chris-Kévin Nadje and Zach Booth. Expect Ruben den Uil to stick to a 4-2-3-1, with the eleven most likely:

Excelsior

Goalkeeper: Stijn van Gassel

Defenders: Ilias Bronkhorst, Rick Meissen, Casper Widell, Arthur Zagré

Midfielders: Noah Naujoks, Gyan de Regt, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian, Derensili Sanches Fernandes

Attackers: Jerolldino Bergraaf

Taking into account AZ's home strength—they haven’t been defeated in 14 of their last 15 at the AFAS Stadion—and their recent superiority over Excelsior, the expectation is that Maarten Martens’ side will control possession, create the bulk of the opportunities, and secure three points. The probability algorithm backs this up, assigning AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance of victory.

While Excelsior have shown some attacking promise in their better moments this season, defensive frailty away from home remains an issue likely to be exploited by AZ’s diverse threats in midfield and attack. If the match plays out according to recent trends and season-long numbers, a home win looks the most plausible outcome.

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Nl1

АЗ АлкмаарЕкселсиор 21/01/2026 18:45

473122

12-1

2 - 1

3.51

48°F

-303

-303 +450 +700 down no down

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1 - 1(0 - 0)

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