Roma’s ruthless surge meets Fenerbahçe’s home steel in Champions League clash

Fenerbahçe vs Roma - 09/10/2026

09/04/2026 6346

Tempo against balance. Roma arrive with numbers that leap off the page, while Fenerbahçe counter with a measured, resilient rhythm, a demanding Kadıköy setting and a European return shaped by a dramatic playoff win over Lyon.

Key Points

• Roma have opened Serie A with back-to-back 4-0 wins, with Donyell Malen scoring five times across those two matches.
• Fenerbahçe reached the Champions League league phase by beating Lyon 3-2 on aggregate, with Vedat Muriqi and Archie Brown scoring in France.
• Anderson Talisca has left Fenerbahçe by mutual agreement, changing the hosts’ attacking midfield picture.
• Prediction: Roma to win 1-2, with Roma to win at 40% probability.

Recent Form

Fenerbahçe enter with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss across their last 6 in all competitions, averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1 conceded, with 17 shots and 7.5 on target per match. At home over their last 3, they are 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1 with 57.67% possession.

Roma’s short-term return is emphatic. Six wins from six in all competitions, 3.17 goals scored per match and only 0.33 conceded, built on 61.5% average possession and 7.33 shots on target. They have controlled territory and tempo with efficiency, rarely allowing sustained pressure, and successive 4-0 Serie A wins over Fiorentina and Lecce have sharpened the sense of momentum.

Recent History

Fenerbahçe’s Champions League path has been methodical. They edged Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at home before a 1-1 away draw, then handled Sturm Graz 2-0 at home and 1-0 away. The step up against Lyon brought a 1-1 draw at home and a 2-1 away win, powered by sharp finishing from Mason Greenwood, Talisca and Vedat Muriqi before Talisca’s subsequent departure.

The Lyon tie underlined versatility: a dominant 72% home-possession performance against Sturm Graz contrasted with a more direct 41% away-possession win at Lyon, where Fenerbahçe still produced 7 shots on target from 16 attempts. Their European run shows control when available and pragmatism when required.

Overall Performance

Over the last 20 matches in all competitions, Fenerbahçe have 12 wins, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.05 on average, with 6.55 shots on target and 57.9% possession. At home across their last 20, they have 11 wins and steady output at both ends. The baseline is consistency.

In the Champions League specifically, they have won 50% of their last 12, scoring 1.33 and conceding 0.83, and are undefeated in 82% of their last 17. Crucially, they have not been defeated in 9 of their last 9 home Champions League matches, winning 5 and posting 44% clean sheets in that span.

Roma’s broader trends are powerful: 60% wins over their last 15 in all competitions, averaging 2.27 scored and 1.07 conceded. They have won by 2 or more in 45% of their last 40 and on the road have 50% wins over their last 8, scoring 2 and conceding 1.5 per game.

Main Trends

Fenerbahçe ride a 3-match win streak and are undefeated in 4 across all competitions, backed by 7.67 shots on target on average during that run. Roma are on a 7-match winning streak, undefeated in 9, and have won each of their last 4 by 2 or more. The visitors’ surge meets a host with a strong Champions League backbone.

Tactically, Roma’s 3-4-2-1 under Gian Piero Gasperini frees Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé between lines behind Donyell Malen. Fenerbahçe, now led again by İsmail Kartal, should keep their 4-2-3-1 base, with N’Golo Kanté and Mattéo Guendouzi screening behind Mason Greenwood, İrfan Can Kahveci and Oğuz Aydın in support of Vedat Muriqi.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Fenerbahçe have had a major late change, with Talisca leaving the club after scoring five times in seven appearances this season. Marco Asensio has been managing a thigh issue, Kerem Aktürkoğlu has been monitored after concussion protocol, and Jayden Oosterwolde and Çağlar Söyüncü remain concerns in defence. Mert Hakan Yandaş is not in the European squad picture.

Fenerbahçe (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Ederson

Defenders: Nélson Semedo, Milan Škriniar, Nathan Aké, Archie Brown

Midfielders: N’Golo Kanté, Mattéo Guendouzi, Mason Greenwood, İrfan Can Kahveci, Oğuz Aydın

Attackers: Vedat Muriqi

Brown’s goal in Lyon strengthens his case at left-back, while Muriqi’s playoff impact keeps him ahead of Romelu Lukaku for the central role. Greenwood remains the main one-v-one threat from the right.

Roma are waiting on Evan Ndicka after his adductor problem in the Lecce warm-up, although no serious lesion was reported. Lorenzo Pellegrini is still working back from a thigh problem, while Devyne Rensch is closer to a return but unlikely to dislodge the current wing-back pairing. Konstantinos Koulierakis and Leonardo Balerdi are squad options rather than confirmed absentees.

Roma (3-4-2-1)

Goalkeeper: Mile Svilar

Defenders: Gianluca Mancini, Daniele Ghilardi, Mario Hermoso

Midfielders: Emanuele Lulli, Bryan Cristante, Manu Koné, Wesley

Attackers: Paulo Dybala, Matías Soulé, Donyell Malen

Malen’s five goals in the first two league matches make him the clearest attacking lock, with Dybala’s craft and Soulé’s vertical threat preferred behind him. If Ndicka is not risked, Ghilardi should continue in the back three after starting at Lecce.

Prediction

Fenerbahçe’s Champions League home run of 9 without defeat is a serious marker, yet Roma’s current level and 7-match win streak tilt the scales. With Roma to win at 40% probability, the edge is narrow but real. Prediction: Roma to win 1-2, with the visitors’ attacking efficiency edging a tight contest.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

UCL

Fenerbahçe Roma 10/09/2026 18:45

382240

21-2

1 - 2

2.84

79°F

+105

+240 +260 +105 no no no

FT

1 - 1(0 - 1)

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