Football is Mathematics
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Momentum, not memories, is on the line as Crystal Palace take on Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park, with Oliver Glasner returning to his former club and both sides searching for sharper Premier League consistency after mixed starts to the campaign.
Head-to-head encounters between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest suggest little to separate the two. The last 8 meetings have seen Crystal Palace fail to win, with 6 drawn and 2 lost. Notably, the last 5 have ended level.
Such a sequence means neither team holds a psychological edge, although Forest's unbeaten Premier League record in this fixture adds weight to the pattern. Palace have been particularly frustrated, unable to take three points in any of those matches.
Palace have put together a mixed start under Pierre Sage. They lost at Everton, were beaten heavily by Manchester City, recovered with an excellent 3-2 win at Fulham, then fell 3-2 to Ipswich after Axel Disasi's red card. Since then, a 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznań and a 0-0 draw at Leeds have steadied the mood.
Nottingham Forest, now managed by former Palace boss Glasner, are also searching for consistency. Their league run has included a home defeat to Leeds, a creditable 2-2 draw at Liverpool, a 0-0 against Tottenham, a 2-1 win at Aston Villa and a damaging 1-0 home loss to Coventry. The concern is familiar: good structure, but not enough ruthless finishing.
For Palace, home form remains difficult to judge because the performances have swung sharply. They created plenty against Ipswich despite playing most of the match with ten men, then looked far more secure in Europe and at Elland Road. Jørgen Strand Larsen has been the clear attacking focal point, scoring against Ipswich and Lech Poznań and linking play effectively with Yéremy Pino and Daichi Kamada.
Forest, meanwhile, have been competitive away from home. The draw at Anfield and win at Villa Park suggest Glasner's 3-4-2-1 can travel well, especially with Morgan Gibbs-White operating between the lines and Daniel Muñoz offering thrust from wing-back. Their problem is turning pressure into goals, as the Coventry defeat underlined.
Looking at broader recent results, Crystal Palace still need to prove they can turn promising spells into sustained Premier League results. The clean sheet at Leeds was important, particularly with Dean Henderson sidelined before the break and Walter Benítez deputising well.
Forest's overall profile is similarly balanced. They can be hard to break down, but their attack has not yet fully clicked around Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye and Gibbs-White. Glasner's return to Selhurst Park is an obvious subplot, especially as Forest now use many of the structural ideas he once made familiar in south London.
Palace's most recent league outing was a goalless draw at Leeds, where they had Tyrick Mitchell's goal ruled out and Benítez made a key close-range save. It followed the high of a European debut in which Pino, Chris Richards, Strand Larsen and Eddie Nketiah all scored against Lech Poznań.
Forest's latest league match was a 1-0 home defeat to Coventry, a poor result after the positivity of their 2-1 win at Aston Villa. That Villa victory showcased Gibbs-White's creativity and Delap's running, but the Coventry setback again raised questions about end product.
Crystal Palace
Goalkeeper: Dean Henderson
Defenders: Chris Richards, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Jaydee Canvot
Midfielders: Anan Khalaili, Quinten Timber, Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell
Attackers: Yéremy Pino, Daichi Kamada, Jørgen Strand Larsen
Palace are likely to continue with their 3-4-2-1 system. Henderson is the first-choice goalkeeper if his ankle recovery is complete after the international break, while Benítez is ready to continue if needed. Disasi is serving a three-match domestic suspension and misses this fixture, so Richards and Canvot are strong starters in the back three. Tomiyasu came off at Leeds with a calf issue, although the initial assessment was not severe; Honest Ahanor is the natural alternative if Sage takes no risk.
Nottingham Forest
Goalkeeper: Matz Sels
Defenders: Jair Cunha, Ousmane Diomande, Murillo
Midfielders: Daniel Muñoz, Xaver Schlager, James McAtee, Neco Williams
Attackers: Morgan Gibbs-White, Dan Ndoye, Liam Delap
Forest are likely to stay close to Glasner's familiar 3-4-2-1. Sels remains secure in goal, with Diomande and Murillo central to the defensive plan. Jair Cunha returned to the XI against Coventry and may keep his place, while Nikola Milenković's hamstring issue leaves his involvement dependent on his response after the break. Muñoz and Williams should operate as wing-backs, with Schlager and McAtee in midfield and Gibbs-White supporting Ndoye and Delap.
With an edge to neither side in recent meetings and Palace unable to register a victory in the last 8 against Forest, another stalemate could be in the cards. The algorithm puts the draw probability at 44%, which accurately reflects the even nature of this contest.
Palace's renewed attacking rhythm and Forest's ability to compete away from home set the stage for a tight, open match. Given the head-to-head pattern and both teams' tendency to fluctuate, a 2-2 draw appears the most likely outcome.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | |||||
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Manchester City | 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
2 |
Arsenal | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
3 |
Brighton | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
4 |
Brentford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
5 |
Leeds United | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
6 |
Liverpool | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
7 |
Everton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
8 |
Hull City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
9 |
Newcastle United | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
10 |
Chelsea | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
11 |
Ipswich Town | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 |
12 |
Manchester United | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
13 |
Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
14 |
Sunderland | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 |
15 |
Crystal Palace | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
16 |
Aston Villa | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
17 |
Bournemouth | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 |
18 |
Coventry City | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 |
19 |
Fulham | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
20 |
Tottenham | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 |
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In their last 53 games in Liga MX, Cruz Azul have been undefeated on 45 occasions
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In their last 53 games in Liga MX, Cruz Azul have been undefeated on 45 occasions
Spain haven't lost any of their last 39 matches in all competitions
Barcelona W have won their last 25 Primera Division Women games in a row
There have been under 2.5 goals in 25 of the latest games in Torneo Federal A of Club Olimpo
Rotherham's form hasn't been good, as the team has won only 3 of their last 20 matches (all competitions)
Malta U21 are on a losing streak of 19 straight matches in Euro U21 Qualification
Their last 11 games in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland have seen FK Karlskrona win by 2 or more goals
Central Ballester have kept a clean sheet in all of their last 7 league matches
No goals have been scored by Kazakhstan in their last 7 games in UEFA Nations League
San Marino have suffered losses by 3 or more goals in all 5 of their latest games in all competitions
In their last 53 games in Liga MX, Cruz Azul have been undefeated on 45 occasions
Spain haven't lost any of their last 39 matches in all competitions
Barcelona W have won their last 25 Primera Division Women games in a row
There have been under 2.5 goals in 25 of the latest games in Torneo Federal A of Club Olimpo
Rotherham's form hasn't been good, as the team has won only 3 of their last 20 matches (all competitions)
Malta U21 are on a losing streak of 19 straight matches in Euro U21 Qualification
Their last 11 games in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland have seen FK Karlskrona win by 2 or more goals
Central Ballester have kept a clean sheet in all of their last 7 league matches
No goals have been scored by Kazakhstan in their last 7 games in UEFA Nations League
San Marino have suffered losses by 3 or more goals in all 5 of their latest games in all competitions











