Atlético Madrid Look to Extend Run at Mendizorroza against Challenging Deportivo Alavés

Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético Madrid - 10/10/2026

09/21/2026 130

Deportivo Alavés and Atlético Madrid return from the international break for their October 10 meeting at Mendizorroza with contrasting but compelling momentum. Atlético head to Vitoria-Gasteiz after three straight league wins, including a 2-1 derby victory over Real Madrid, while Alavés have already shown this season that their defensive structure can frustrate stronger opponents.

Key Points

• Atlético have won three straight La Liga matches, scoring nine goals and conceding only once in that run.
• Alavés held Athletic Club to a 0-0 draw at San Mamés, with Antonio Sivera saving a second-half penalty.
• Lucas Boyé remains central to the home threat after scoring a hat-trick in the 5-2 win over Osasuna.
• Jonathan David is pushing to keep leading the Atlético attack after scoring his third La Liga goal in the derby win over Real Madrid.
• The locked prediction is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 46% likelihood of taking maximum points.

Recent History

Examining head-to-head statistics, Deportivo Alavés have found some resilience at home against Atlético Madrid in recent seasons. Across their last five home matches versus the Madrid side, Alavés have come away with two wins and two draws, suffering just a single defeat. This suggests that traveling to Vitoria-Gasteiz has not always been a comfortable experience for Atlético, even when entering as favorites.

Recent Form

Turning to current form, Alavés have two wins from their last six La Liga matches. While those victories provided signs of positivity, the side have also drawn twice and lost twice, averaging a respectable 1.33 goals scored and conceding 1 per match in that span. Their home form remains a particular bright spot, as they have secured two wins in their most recent three matches at Mendizorroza, with a 2 goal per game average scored and just one conceded.

However, momentum has stalled slightly, with Alavés entering this fixture winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Creating chances has not been an issue, but their 0-0 draw away to Athletic was built more on defensive resistance than attacking fluency, with Sivera producing a key penalty save. Maintaining defensive stability and managing possession, which has often sat below 41%, may pose questions against a side that can dominate territory.

Atlético Madrid arrive in Vitoria with an impressive sequence behind them. They have won four of their last six La Liga outings and claimed all three points in each of their past three matches, during which they have scored 3 goals per game and conceded just 0.33. Their attack is firing, and their defensive work remains disciplined, as seen in controlled performances against Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid.

Analyzing broader trends, Atlético have won 60% of their last 15 league games, averaging nearly 2 goals per outing and conceding 1.4. They have been particularly hard to beat in La Liga, going undefeated in 8 of their last 10 league matches. Notably, they have demonstrated a consistent ability to win by at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 10 matches in all competitions and 38% of their last 13 league fixtures. Nevertheless, their away record is more checkered, with only 50% wins from their last eight and a higher average of 1.63 goals conceded, indicating that opportunities can arise for home sides.

Looking at recent league matches, Alavés' most notable result at home was a statement 5-2 win over Osasuna, featuring a hat-trick from Lucas Boyé, while their away performance at Athletic saw them limit the hosts to a draw despite sustained pressure. Atlético Madrid’s recent victory over Real Madrid showcased their control, with 61% possession and 9 shots on target, while Giuliano Simeone created the decisive moments for Grimaldo and Jonathan David.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Alavés remain without Mikel Rodríguez and Facundo Garcés after serious knee injuries, while Aitor Mañas has been working back from a head injury suffered before the Athletic match. Quique Sánchez Flores has leaned heavily on a compact back five, and the San Mamés XI strengthened the case for another cautious shape against Atlético.

Deportivo Alavés probable lineup:

Goalkeeper: Antonio Sivera

Defenders: Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Nicolás Valentini, Jonny Otto, Abde Rebbach

Midfielders: Pablo Ibáñez, Ander Guevara, Carlos Protesoni

Attackers: Lucas Boyé, Mariano Díaz

Alavés can also call on Antonio Blanco, Carles Aleñá, Denis Suárez, Ángel Pérez and Toni Martínez, but the recent clean sheet in Bilbao gives the more defensive midfield a strong chance of being retained. Boyé's hat-trick against Osasuna keeps him locked into the attack, with Mariano offering pressing and penalty-box presence alongside him.

Atlético Madrid are expected to benefit from the break, with Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sorloth working toward returns after recent muscle problems. Diego Simeone’s latest important XI against Real Madrid pointed toward a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 structure, with Jonathan David preferred through the middle and Kang-in Lee plus Giuliano supporting from advanced areas.

Atlético Madrid probable lineup:

Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak

Defenders: Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, Dávid Hancko

Midfielders: Marcos Llorente, Johnny Cardoso, Álex Baena, Alejandro Grimaldo

Attackers: Giuliano Simeone, Kang-in Lee, Jonathan David

There is real competition, with Julián Alvarez, Ademola Lookman, Koke, Morten Hjulmand, Robin Le Normand and Barrios all strong options, but Simeone may be reluctant to move too far from the derby framework. Jonathan David has strengthened his case after scoring again against Real Madrid, while Grimaldo's influence from the left has become increasingly important.

Prediction

As for the match prediction, statistical probabilities tip the scales toward Atlético Madrid, with a 46% likelihood that they take maximum points. Their recent surge in attack and tougher defensive performances make them marginal favorites, but Alavés' solid home ground history and ability to frustrate this opponent should not be overlooked.

In summary, Atlético Madrid have momentum and statistical trends in their favor, especially with a run of three straight victories and dominance in recent league matches. Yet, Deportivo Alavés have shown that at Mendizorroza they can be a difficult nut to crack, and an efficient display could put Atlético’s defense to the test. This contest is set up to reflect the finer margins of recent form versus historical stubbornness at home.

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Deportivo Alavés Atlético Madrid 10/10/2026 16:15

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