Avispa Fukuoka Aim to Reverse Fortunes Against Challenging Fagiano Okayama

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama - 10/10/2026

09/21/2026 18

At the Best Denki Stadium, Avispa Fukuoka will try to find a way out of their difficult run as they welcome Fagiano Okayama, a side demonstrating much greater consistency this season. The visitors’ superior form and recent head-to-head record make them the side to watch in this encounter.

Previous Encounter

The last meeting between these sides, played on April 25, 2026, saw Fagiano Okayama claim a decisive 2-0 victory at home. Despite having just 39% of the ball, Okayama maximized efficiency with 6 total shots, 2 on target, and crucially, clinical finishing when it counted.

Avispa Fukuoka boasted more possession at 61%, created more dangerous situations (54 dangerous attacks vs 44), and out-shot their opponents 8 to 6, but ultimately could not convert. Kosuke Shirai struck first in the 27th minute and Towa Yamane doubled the lead on the hour mark, settling the contest. Avispa’s inability to break through despite statistical advantages underscores one of their defining issues this campaign—turning possession into goals.

Recent Form

Avispa Fukuoka’s struggle is evident in their last 6 league matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, with just 0.67 goals scored per game. Defensively, they have conceded 1.33 per match and their home form is no respite: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in their last three at this venue, averaging one goal scored to 1.67 conceded.

The underlying numbers further illustrate problems in attack, as Avispa managed only 9.5 total shots and 5.5 on target per game during this stretch, but with a worrying drop in average home possession to 33%.

Fagiano Okayama, in contrast, are operating with far more confidence and cohesion. Their last 6 saw 4 victories and 2 defeats, averaging 2 goals scored, and conceding just 1.33. They are getting more out of each opportunity, even if possession remains moderate at 42%.

Overall Performance

In the current J1 League standings, Avispa Fukuoka are stuck at 18th, collecting just 1 win and 1 draw from 8 matches (1.13 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game, and a negative goal difference of -3). Their home struggles mirror the overall pattern, with difficulty keeping pace over the full 90 minutes.

Fagiano Okayama have climbed to 9th, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 8 outings. Their attack has produced 11 goals (1.38 per game), while they’ve kept their goal difference positive at +1 thanks to some commanding away performances.

Main Trends

Avispa Fukuoka’s downward spiral can be measured in several streaks: they are winless in 7 consecutive matches across all competitions, and 7 losses in their last 14. Remarkably, 80% of their last 20 matches have ended without a win and 87% of their previous 15 league outings have failed to yield a victory.

Defensively, they do manage clean sheets in 12 of their last 30 home games, indicating sporadic resilience, but that is offset by a league record that has seen them lose 7 of the last 12 matches.

Fagiano Okayama are trending upward with 10 wins in their last 20 matches. On the road, half of their previous 8 have ended in victory, and their current league run includes a 53% win rate across 15 matches. Defensively, they’ve kept a clean sheet in half of their last 12 home outings, and they boast 6 wins in that stretch.

Probable Lineups

Avispa Fukuoka

Goalkeeper: Yuma Obata

Defenders: Yuma Tsujioka, Masaya Tashiro, Daiki Fukazawa

Midfielders: Tomoya Miki, Yu Hashimoto, Daiki Fukazawa, Kokoro Maeda

Midfielders: Shu Morooka, Masato Shigemi

Attackers: Werik Popó

Fagiano Okayama

Goalkeeper: Lennart Moser

Defenders: Hiroshi Omori, Yoshitake Suzuki, Yugo Tatsuta

Midfielders: Kosuke Shirai, Oberdan, Ibuki Fujita, Haruka Motoyama

Midfielders: Ataru Esaka, Kota Kawano

Attackers: Lucão

Prediction

Given the stark contrast in recent form and overall performance, it is difficult to back Avispa Fukuoka in this matchup. Fagiano Okayama’s sharper attack and steadier defense give them a significant edge, particularly as Avispa have not shown signs of pulling out from their current slide.

The algorithm points to an under 2.5 goals outcome and a probable 2-0 win for Fagiano Okayama. The probability of an away win stands at 45%, reflecting Okayama’s current ascendancy and Fukuoka’s prolonged troubles. Unless the hosts can address their inefficiency in front of goal, Okayama are well-positioned to repeat the success of their previous encounter.

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Avispa Fukuoka Fagiano Okayama 10/10/2026 08:00

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