Celtic Look to Extend Dominance Over Motherwell at Fir Park

Motherwell vs Celtic - 10/11/2026

09/21/2026 95

Motherwell gear up to face a formidable test as Celtic arrive at Fir Park in the Premiership. The history between these sides is well known, but the numbers reveal just how daunting the challenge is for the home team. With both clubs coming off inconsistent stretches, every match detail counts.

Recent History

For Motherwell, home fixtures against the Glasgow giants have rarely gone to plan. In their last 10 home contests against Celtic, they've managed only one victory and lost the remaining nine. The trend continues when looking at a broader picture, with Motherwell losing 85% of their last 20 matches against this opposition. Celtic have also shown a knack for comfortable margins at Fir Park: in 47% of their last 19 visits, they've left with a win by two or more goals.

The most recent outings confirm the one-sided nature of this rivalry. Celtic continue to claim points consistently, often dictating the tempo and restricting Motherwell's attacking rhythm.

Recent Form

Motherwell have been struggling to find rhythm. Across their past six matches, they secured only one win and one draw, conceding an average of 2.33 goals per match while scoring 1.33 themselves. Offensively, they've averaged 14 shots per match with an encouraging 57.8% average possession. Yet, defensive lapses have cost them, as shown by four defeats in that period.

The Steelmen's home form has been patchy. A three-match snapshot at Fir Park reveals one win and two losses, again with a conceded average of 2.33 goals per game. Their performances often look statistically strong in possession and passing, only for defensive moments to undermine progress.

Celtic's recent outings have also included inconsistencies. In their last six, the Parkhead side have won three and lost three, averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. Their attacking output, averaging 15.33 shots and 5.83 on target per game, still outpaces most in the division.

Despite that, their last few matches have seen a fall in conversion rate, including a 1-0 home defeat to Rangers and a 2-1 win at St Mirren. Celtic maintain a possession average close to 60% and create high volumes of dangerous attacks, often overwhelming less-resourced sides.

Main Trends

Motherwell’s long-term patterns highlight a persistent challenge. They've been winless in 82% of their last 11 matches in all competitions, and in the league, that trend persists—83% winless in their last six Premiership outings. However, their defensive resilience at home occasionally shines through: they have kept clean sheets in 53% of their last 40 home matches in all competitions.

Celtic's long-term stats are more positive. Winners in 26 of their last 40 outings, they score nearly two goals per game while conceding just over one. In the Premiership, they are undefeated in 85% of their last 20 matches. Their away form is particularly robust, winning 67% of the past 12 on the road and staying unbeaten in 12 of their last 15 outside Glasgow.

Overall Performance

Motherwell’s recent league performances include a heavy 4-0 home defeat to Aberdeen and a narrow 2-1 loss to Dundee, though they shone when dismantling Dundee United 3-0. They regularly control the ball and create more attacks than their opponents but often fail to make their dominance count defensively.

Celtic, meanwhile, have racked up emphatic wins such as a 5-1 dismantling of Kilmarnock and a comfortable 3-0 result against Aberdeen. They create an abundance of attacks (an average of 99 per match in the league), which inevitably stretches opposition defenses.

Probable Lineups

Motherwell

Goalkeeper: Alex Paulsen

Defenders: Jake Girdwood-Reich, Martin Moormann, Tom Sparrow, Emmanuel Longelo

Midfielders: Lukas Fadinger, Alex Lowry, Tawanda Maswanhise, Ibrahim Said, Joe Hodge

Attackers: Regan Charles-Cook

Celtic

Goalkeeper: Viljami Sinisalo

Defenders: Liam Scales, Auston Trusty, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Colby Donovan

Midfielders: Mika Baur, Callum McGregor, Hyun-jun Yang, Haissem Hassan, Benjamin Nygren

Attackers: Camilo Durán

Prediction

The numbers suggest Celtic remain in command going into this fixture, with a 67% probability of collecting all three points and an algorithm-predicted 2-1 away victory. Expect a match with plenty of goalmouth action as both teams average high shot counts, while Celtic's superior conversion may ultimately separate the sides. Over 2.5 goals looks reasonable given recent trends: both teams have averaged over 12 shots per match and have defenses that can be breached.

Motherwell’s steady possession and pressing will mean they compete in midfield, but vulnerabilities at the back could again be exposed by a Celtic side used to seizing control at Fir Park.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Sc1

Motherwell Celtic 11/10/2026 13:00

151867

21-2

1 - 2

2.96

54°F

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