Football is Mathematics
UEFA Champions League
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Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 9
Oriel Park will be the stage as Dundalk FC look to halt a difficult sequence, while Bohemians FC arrive on an impressive streak seeking to solidify their place near the top. With league positions, recent trends and form providing plenty to dissect, this upcoming match holds meaningful implications for both sides.
Dundalk FC currently sit fifth in the Premier League with a record of 10 wins, 11 draws and 11 defeats from their 32 matches. Their recent form, however, gives cause for concern, with just a single win in their last six outings and four defeats across that span. Their home fortunes have been even more troubling, dropping each of their last three fixtures at Oriel Park while conceding an average of three goals per game in that stretch.
Recent head-to-head history offers some belief for the hosts. Dundalk FC have claimed five wins, two draws and three losses in their last 10 home meetings against Bohemians FC. However, Bohemians have won two of the last four meetings between the pair and notably emerged as 3-1 winners at Oriel Park earlier in the campaign. In fact, Dundalk have been winless in 80% of their last ten home league matches, including those against Bohemians, underlying a longer-term struggle at their own ground.
Delving deeper into Dundalk’s run, their last six league matches have returned only a single win, one draw and four losses. In these games, they averaged 1.5 goals scored but conceded 2.67 per match – defensive frailties coupled with a lack of finishing edge have been evident. Their average shot output at home, however, has remained healthy at 16 per game, though just 2.33 of those on target suggests an efficiency issue in front of goal.
Bohemians FC journey to Oriel Park sitting third in the standings, having built a record of 16 wins, 8 draws and 7 defeats. The visitors have been in sparkling form, unbeaten in their last six matches and winning five, a stretch where they have averaged 2.83 goals scored and just one conceded per game. Over their last seven in all competitions they have avoided defeat in six, signalling significant momentum.
Offensively, Bohemians have looked threatening, firing 17.5 shots per match with 6.5 on target over their latest six matches. Strong possession statistics (64.17% average in this period) indicate their control, while keeping clean sheets in 16 of their last 40 away games further highlights defensive solidity on the road.
Comparing the two sides, Dundalk have struggled for stability at the back, conceding 53 so far this season (1.66 per game) and recording a negative goal difference. Bohemians, by contrast, have a positive difference of +18, thanks to 55 goals scored and just 37 against, underscoring their balance at both ends.
Last time out, Dundalk fell 3-2 at home to Shelbourne FC, struggling in possession (46%) and failing to limit their opponents’ threat. Their shot efficiency (3 on target from 14 attempts) was again below par. Bohemians’ most recent fixture ended in a 2-1 win over Drogheda Utd, where they posted 20 attempts, 6 on target, 71% possession and 11 corners, reinforcing their capacity to exert pressure.
Both squads should resemble their recent lineups, though Dundalk will be without Conor Kearns and Norman Garbett due to long-term injury absences. Expected formations point to both managers deploying their preferred 4-2-3-1 setups, looking to control midfield while providing structure defensively.
Dundalk FC Probable Lineup
Goalkeeper: Enda Minogue
Defenders: Bobby Burns, Mayowa Animasahun, Tom Grivosti, Egor Vassenin
Midfielders: Daryl Horgan, Ronan Teahan, Trevor Clarke, Keith Buckley, Aodh Dervin
Attackers: Cian Dillion
Bohemians FC Probable Lineup
Goalkeeper: Paul Walters
Defenders: Patrick Hickey, Senan Mullen, Darragh Power, Cian Byrne
Midfielders: Dawson Devoy, Jordan Flores, Ross Tierney, Harry Vaughan, Connor Parsons
Attackers: Douglas James-Taylor
With Bohemians FC having won eight of their last ten league matches without defeat and Dundalk winless in 83% of their last twelve Premier League fixtures, the trends heavily lean toward the visitors. Bohemians’ impressive away performance, combined with Dundalk’s home struggles, further reinforce this outlook.
Prediction models suggest a 51% probability of a Bohemians victory, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 in their favour. Over 2.5 goals appears probable given both teams’ attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities on show in recent matches.
Ultimately, Bohemians FC seem better equipped both in form and structure to emerge with all three points, though Dundalk’s historical edge at home against this opposition should not be ignored.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | |||||
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
St Patricks Dublin | 59 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 |
2 |
Shamrock Rovers | 59 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 18 |
3 |
Bohemians FC | 56 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 18 |
4 |
Derry City | 41 | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 |
5 |
Dundalk FC | 41 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | -4 |
6 |
Shelbourne FC | 40 | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
7 |
Galway United | 38 | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 |
8 |
Waterford United | 34 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 |
9 |
Drogheda Utd | 34 | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | -13 |
10 |
Sligo Rovers | 23 | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -30 |
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