Football is Mathematics
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The next La Liga fixture at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia presents a stern test for Levante, as they welcome an Atlético Madrid side sitting near the summit after one of their strongest starts in years. Levante need to steady a stuttering campaign, while Diego Simeone’s men arrive with title-race momentum and a defence that is again setting the tone.
Levante have endured a challenging patch, reflected by their position of 14th and a record of 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats after 10 league games. Their 16 goals show they can threaten, but 19 conceded underlines the defensive instability that has made consistency difficult for Luís Castro’s side.
In contrast, Atlético Madrid have hit their stride, losing only once in 10 league games and boasting a robust goal difference of +12 thanks to 20 goals scored while conceding just 8. Atlético have matched their best La Liga start for 13 seasons, sitting on 25 points after eight wins, one draw and one defeat.
Looking at direct encounters, Atlético clearly hold the balance of power. Over the last three meetings, Levante have not managed a win, drawing one and losing two. The most recent league meeting in Valencia finished 0-0 in January, but Atlético also won the previous clash 3-1 in Madrid.
Levante’s recent home form does provide some glimmers of optimism. Their 3-1 win over Athletic Club was built on a rapid Roger Brugué double and a late Etta Eyong goal, while the 3-3 draw with Sevilla showed their attacking ceiling. However, Levante have conceded 10 goals in only four home league games, which leaves little margin against a side as clinical as Atlético.
Atlético, meanwhile, come into this contest in red-hot form, having not lost any of their past 8 matches in all competitions. Simeone’s team have also put together six straight league wins, with Jan Oblak keeping clean sheets in the recent 1-0 victories over Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruña.
The visitors attack efficiently and dominate territory, usually working from a compact base before releasing Álex Baena, Kang-in Lee, Ademola Lookman or Julián Álvarez between the lines. Their 1-0 win over Deportivo was not fluent, but Grimaldo’s assist and Álvarez’s finish again showed how little Atlético need to decide tight games.
Levante’s overall approach has favoured quick transitions, but their average possession often leaves them playing second fiddle in the midfield battle. Their most recent outing, a 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad, saw them trail early, respond through Thiago Fernández and still spend long spells under pressure.
Levante are expected to remain close to their recent 4-4-2. Enzo Bardeli is not expected back before the international break, while Hugo Sotelo and Adrián de la Fuente are doubts. Brugué will be monitored after going off at half-time against Real Sociedad, but the captain’s recent impact makes him difficult to leave out if fit.
Levante Probable Lineup: Mathew Ryan; Nacho Pérez, Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe, Manu Sánchez; Roger Brugué, Daniel Requena Sánchez, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Thiago Fernández; Iván Romero, Petar Ratkov.
That shape keeps Iván Romero and Petar Ratkov together up front, with Thiago offering the most direct threat from wide areas. Oriol Rey, Víctor García and Etta Eyong provide alternatives if Castro wants more control or fresh pace.
Atlético have fitness issues to manage. Koke is recovering from a thigh problem, Johnny Cardoso has a muscle injury and Cristian Romero remains a doubt, but Hjulmand is available for this La Liga fixture despite a European suspension. Simeone’s latest league XI featured Oblak, Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo, Barrios, Hjulmand, Baena, Kang-in Lee, Lookman and Julián Álvarez.
Atlético Madrid Probable Lineup: Jan Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, Dávid Hancko, Alejandro Grimaldo; Morten Hjulmand, Pablo Barrios, Álex Baena; Kang-in Lee, Julián Álvarez, Ademola Lookman.
Jonathan David and Alexander Sørloth remain attacking options, while Giuliano Simeone is pushing for a start after helping change the rhythm against Deportivo. Still, Álvarez’s match-winning goal last weekend strengthens his case to lead the line.
Prediction models suggest Atlético enter as strong favourites, with the algorithm putting their win probability at 64%. Given their current form and superior consistency in both boxes, the odds lean their way. Atlético’s midfield control, elite game management and Levante’s vulnerability when stretched could see the visitors create and convert enough opportunities to justify the forecast.
While Levante’s firepower at home should not be dismissed, their defensive frailties against direct and fast attacks could leave them exposed. The locked prediction is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 64% win probability.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Barcelona | 27 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 |
2 |
Atlético Madrid | 25 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
3 |
Real Madrid | 24 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
4 |
Real Betis | 20 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
5 |
Real Sociedad | 19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
6 |
Sevilla | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
7 |
Celta Vigo | 12 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
8 |
Deportivo Alavés | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
9 |
Villarreal | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
10 |
Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
11 |
Osasuna | 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 |
12 |
Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
13 |
Racing Santander | 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 |
14 |
Levante | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 |
15 |
Elche | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 |
16 |
Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 |
17 |
Getafe | 9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 |
18 |
Espanyol | 8 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 |
19 |
Valencia | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Málaga CF | 5 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 |
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Over 2.5 goals have been scored in the 13 most recent games in 2. Liga of FC Liefering
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FC Tokyo have managed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 league games
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Simba are undefeated in their last 33 Ligi Kuu Bara games in a row
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Leoben have lost their last 19 league games
Simba have won their last 18 league games
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Hapoel Acre haven't scored a single goal in all of their last 11 Liga Leumit games
Newroz SC (IRQ) have kept a clean sheet in their last 9 Stars League games
Tartu JK Welco have achieved a 6 game half time/full time winning streak in Esiliiga
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