Football is Mathematics
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Bayer Leverkusen prepares to welcome Nürnberg at the BayArena for the DFB Pokal 2nd Round, a duel that offers a blend of historical dominance, recent form contrasts, and potential for tactical intrigue.
The last competitive meeting between these two sides came on April 20, 2019, where Bayer Leverkusen delivered a controlled 2-0 victory over Nürnberg. Leverkusen’s composure was evident, striking in the second half through Lucas Alario and Kevin Volland, sealing the win in the 61st and 86th minutes, respectively.
Despite lacking detailed statistics from that match, the narrative remains clear: Leverkusen managed to keep Nürnberg off the scoresheet while maintaining discipline at both ends. This encounter set a recent precedent, and the Bayer club have since evolved, adding more firepower and resilience to their squad.
Leverkusen’s recent performances highlight their strength. They have won 67% of their last 12 matches across all competitions, scoring 2.42 and conceding just 1.08 per match. Notably, they have remained undefeated in 12 of their last 15 outings. The BayArena has proven something of a fortress, with the team either winning or drawing 87% of their last 15 home fixtures.
Nürnberg, for their part, have shown an ability to avoid defeat, being undefeated in 20 of their last 25 outings. However, their issues away from home cannot be ignored — winless in 13 of their last 16 away matches in all competitions. The last three matches for Nürnberg in all competitions have also ended without a win, hinting at recent struggles to turn draws or losses into positive results.
In the DFB Pokal, Leverkusen’s reliability is even more pronounced. They have won 8 of their last 12 matches in the competition, scoring 1.83 and conceding just 0.58 per match. Unbeaten in 24 of their last 30 Pokal games, Leverkusen show remarkable cup consistency.
Nürnberg’s Pokal form is more modest. They have drawn 50% of their last 12 matches in the competition, with 8 winless matches in the last 10. Even when possession and attacking statistics looked promising, the results have been less favourable.
Leverkusen are comfortable winners by substantial margins — eight wins by two or more goals in their last 21 games. At home, 45% of their past 20 matches have been victories by 2+ goals. They’ve also kept clean sheets in 40% of their previous 30 home matches, coinciding with a 2.07 goals per game scoring average.
Nürnberg’s away struggles are signified by their 81% winless record in their last 16 away trips. They’re competitive, often drawing (8 of the last 15 away matches), yet too often drop points instead of closing matches with all three.
Bayer Leverkusen
Goalkeeper: Mark Flekken
Defenders: Facundo Medina, Miguel Gutiérrez, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba
Midfielders: Equi Fernández, Aleix García, Afonso Moreira, Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza
Attackers: Patrik Schick
Nürnberg
Goalkeeper: Jan Reichert
Defenders: Alexis Kalogeropoulos, Fynn Otto, Tim Janisch, Eric Porstner
Midfielders: Adam Markhiev, Rayan Ghrieb, Javier Fernández, Julian Justvan, Mohamed Alì Zoma
Attackers: Piet Scobel
Leverkusen must contend without Kennet Eichhorn, Guéla Doué, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Christian Kofane, Montrell Culbreath, Martin Terrier, Loïc Badé and Moussa Diaby, all out due to various injuries or fitness concerns. Nürnberg are missing Mikayil Faye, Finn Becker, Kristian Mandic, Adriano Grimaldi and Mohamed Alì Zoma for fitness and injury reasons.
Bayer Leverkusen come into the match with both recent form and historical leverage, backed by a run that has seen them undefeated in 12 of their last 15 matches. Nürnberg’s strength lies in their ability to snatch draws and withstand pressure, but a lack of wins in 13 of their last 16 away matches is a concern.
Leverkusen’s attacking depth and discipline mark them as favourites, with a probability of 44% for securing victory predicted by the Forebet algorithm. A 3-1 result feels realistic, particularly given their home scoring patterns and Nürnberg’s tendency to draw or fall short in difficult away assignments.

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