Forebet’s 2026 World Cup Prediction – Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?

06/16/2026 21677

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is coming right up, co-hosts Mexico facing South Africa in the tournament's curtain-raiser on June 11! The final is scheduled for July 19, but with the new expanded format and 48 (instead of 32) teams in the competitions now, there will be plenty of action in those 5 weeks of FIFA football action! How will the tournament unfold? Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Let's see what Forebet's algorithm thinks.

At Forebet, we specialize in football predictions, but we usually keep our predictions on a match-per-match basis to make sure the Forebet algorithm also has the most accurate and current data to work with. This is what we'll do for the FIFA World Cup matches, of course, but we also couldn't resist to try and predict the whole tournament too. Of course, football fans and other websites and pundits will make make their predictions too, with that being a big part of the fun of such a big tournament, especially since it's far from an easy task.

Based on Forebet's statistical model, we predicted the results of all the group games, Round of 32, Last 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals, plotting the path of the knockout stage before determining the statistically most probable outcome of the final.

So, who will be this tournament's dark horse? Who will upset the odds in the group stage? Who will make a shock exit even before the Round of 32? And who will triumph on July 19 and win the World Cup?

Here are Forebet's predictions for the 2026 World Cup!

Group Stage

Our mathematical algorithm expects a lot of spectacular moments and surprised results on this World Cup. In Group A, Mexico and the Czech Republic look like the teams most likely to progress over South Korea and South Africa. The numbers also suggest Switzerland and Canada successfully qualifying from Group B, with the co-hosts delighting their home fans.

Over in Group C, tournament heavyweights Brazil are likely progress comfortably alongside Türkiye , who look like they might stage a memorable group performance. Group D will likely see Scotland and the USA qualify for the next stage, with the Americans utilizing their home advantage to great effect.

Germany and Ivory Coast are also expected to successfully advance from Group E, combining clinical efficiency and flair. Group F may prove to be highly competitive, with the Netherlands and Japan securing their passage through to the knockout phase.

Interestingly, Group G may also be very close, but Forebet expects Belgium and Iran to book their spots after a series of tight encounters. In Group H, traditional powerhouses Spain and Uruguay should both qualify, living up to expectations in a highly competitive pool.

France and Norway are very likley to emerge triumphant from Group I, led by some of the world's most lethal forwards. Over in Group J, Argentina and Austria will probably book their places in the next round, with the South American giants putting in a strong group-stage performance.

In Group K, Forebet expects Portugal and Colombia to safely progress after some thrilling, high-scoring matches. Finally, England and Croatia will probably qualify from Group L to complete the knockout field.

With the group stage completed and the last 32 confirmed, let's find out what happened next.

Round of 32

With the FIFA World Cup having a Round of 32 for the very first time, we'll be treated with sixteen knock-out matches between the groups' winners and runner-ups, including:

Some of these look much more unpredictable than others, but the numbers suggest relatively comfortable victories for France, Turkey, Brazil, England, Argentina, USA and Portugal, and significantly tighter clashes in the other matches.

Round of 16

With Norway one of the likely dark horses of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the algorithm expects them to reach the Round of 16 by beating Ivory Coast, but to face Brazil in their next match. The numbers suggest a very close game as Brazil haven't been in the best of forms before the tournament, but they are likely to be picking up speed by this point and to manage to knock Norway out.

As the USA are likely to overcome Iran on the grass field in the Round of 32, they will likely face Argentina in a similarly tough game for the hosts as Norway's versus the other South American giants. The numbers suggest a heavy win for Argentina against the hosts.

the algorithm also expects Portugal to meet Switzerland in the Round of 16, Czechia vs Netherlands, Croatia vs Spain, Mexico vs England, Turkey vs Belgium, and a blockbuster Last 16 clash between Germany and France, with the French side likely to win, given Germany's sub-par form at least prior to the tournament's launch.

Quarter-Finals

For the quarter-finals, the above calculations suggest the following:

With France's strong squad and momentum, they will likely be favorites against the Netherlands in an overall close game, while Spain look like favorites versus Belgium. Forebet expects World Cup disappointment for England once again, this time at the hands of Brazil, while the numbers suggest Portugal to knock Argentina out in the quarter-finals.

Semi-Finals

Given all the calculations above, Forebet's algorithm expects two incredibly close and interesting semi-finals of France vs Spain and Brazil vs Portugal. Spain and France as many people's favorites, making this a likely final-before-the-final for a lot of people, with Forebet expecting France to be victorious

In the second semi-final, the numbers suggest something that may feel intuitively surprising, which is a win for Portugal over Brazil, setting up a final between France and Portugal.

Final

A final of France vs Portugal would be the eight H2H clash between these two sides, with France having 4 wins, Portugal having 1 win, and there being 2 draws between them in the previous seven clashes.

The algorithm expects this statistic to change in Portugal's favor, however, as the numbers suggest that, should this be the final, then Portugal is likely to come out victorious, with Roberto Martínez leading them to their first-ever FIFA World Cup final!

How do you see the final going? Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Or the dozens of previous clashes before the final? All these calculations will change with every next game played, which is why Forebet will continue to update its predictions and stats for the World Cup as the tournament progresses and it remains to be seen who will truly come on top in the end. But, if it goes by the numbers, could this year really belong to Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal?