Philadelphia Union and New York City FC Meet at Subaru Park: Evenly Matched Battle Expected

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC - 03/01/2026

02/23/2026 449

The Eastern Conference clash at Subaru Park sees Philadelphia Union and New York City FC locking horns with both teams looking to set the tone early in the new MLS campaign. With draw looking likely, all signs point to a closely contested encounter.

Recent history between these two clubs at Subaru Park makes compelling reading. In the last ten home matches, Philadelphia Union have picked up five wins against New York City FC, but they've also fallen to defeat five times, lending the fixture a sense of balance and unpredictability.

Philadelphia Union's overall form over their past 20 matches in all competitions stands strong, winning 55%. They've been particularly effective at home with 13 wins in their last 20 home matches, netting an impressive 2.05 goals per game while allowing just 0.9. Defensively, the Union have managed a clean sheet in 40% of those home outings.

Further underlining their home strength, across the last 30 matches at Subaru Park in all competitions, Philadelphia are undefeated in 87% of them. Focusing just on Major League Soccer, that undefeated proportion climbs to 93% over the last 15 league home matches. Even when looking at their last 14 league matches, the Union have managed 7 wins with a solid average of 1.57 goals scored per game.

In contrast, the Union’s more immediate league record shows a bit more vulnerability, with 50% losses in their last 6 MLS games – a sign that they can sometimes be unsettled despite a generally positive trend at home.

New York City FC bring their own resilience into this fixture. The last 20 matches in all competitions have brought them 11 victories, and notably, they've been undefeated in 5 of their last 6. Away from home, NYCFC have held firm, winning 50% of their last 16 on the road while maintaining an even goal difference, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.44 per away game.

These numbers highlight a NYCFC side that travels well and can match up with most MLS opponents, especially early in the season when momentum and chemistry are still building across the league.

Squad availability will be a key factor as both teams contend with injuries and personnel changes following the summer transfer window. Philadelphia Union will be without Quinn Sullivan (cruciate ligament tear), while notable departures such as Kai Wagner, Alejandro Bedoya, and Mikael Uhre mean some reshuffling in the starting eleven.

New York City FC have even greater concerns. Keaton Parks, Alonso Martínez, Jacob Arroyave, and Kai Trewin are all sidelined due to injuries, and several players have recently departed, including Maxi Moralez, Justin Haak, and Monsef Bakrar.

Taking recent lineups and transfers into consideration, here's how the teams are likely to set up:

Philadelphia Union Probable XI (4-4-2):

Goalkeeper: Andre Blake

Defenders: Finn Sundstrom, Nathan Harriel, Olwethu Makhanya, Japhet Sery Larsen

Midfielders: Milan Iloski, Danley Jean Jacques, Indiana Vassilev, Jesús Bueno

Attackers: Ezekiel Alladoh, Bruno Damiani

New York City FC Probable XI (4-2-3-1):

Goalkeeper: Matt Freese

Defenders: Raul Gustavo, Thiago Martins, Tayvon Gray, Kevin O'Toole

Midfielders: Jonathan Shore, Aiden O'Neill, Agustín Ojeda, Hannes Wolf, Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Attackers: Talles Magno

With both sides adapting to recent squad changes and missing key names, the midfield battle should be crucial. Philadelphia's home record suggests they're tough to break down, while New York City FC's away performances and recent undefeated streak hints they will not roll over easily.

The probability for a draw stands at 45%, and a 1-1 scoreline reflects the stats and trends. All signs point to a balanced showdown where neither side holds a decisive edge.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Us1

Philadelphia Union New York City FC 01/03/2026 22:30

304525

X1-1

1 - 1

2.20

30°F

+265

-118 +265 +310 no no no

FT

1 - 2(0 - 1)

-

- - -