Football is Mathematics
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Hartberg host Austria Lustenau at the PROfertil ARENA with both teams looking to build on positive results in the Bundesliga. With recent matchups between the sides often balanced, this fixture appears finely poised, promising another closely contested meeting.
Looking at the recent head-to-head record in Hartberg, neither side has managed to dominate. In the last five home meetings between the clubs, Hartberg have taken just one victory, while three have ended level and Austria Lustenau claimed one win. That set of results suggests this fixture consistently produces tight encounters, often with little separating the teams by full time.
Hartberg come into this game enjoying a strong run in their last six across all competitions. They have been undefeated in five of those six matches, securing three wins and two draws with just one defeat. Offensively, Hartberg's output stands at 2.33 goals per game over that stretch, while their defense concedes 1.67 on average.
Their home form, though, raises questions. In the last three at PROfertil ARENA, Hartberg managed just one win, one draw and one defeat, and over their last 12 league home matches, they've suffered six losses and have been winless in 10 of those 12. These figures highlight an ongoing challenge to turn home advantage into consistent points.
Recent outings also show Hartberg struggle to keep possession, averaging 35.17% possession over the past six but controlling 45.33% of the ball in their last three home games. Their average shots and shots on target numbers are decent but not exceptional, meaning efficiency in front of goal remains crucial.
Turning to the visitors, Austria Lustenau have collected three wins and a draw from their last six matches, scoring two per match and conceding 1.67. They have also shown themselves capable away from home, winning 7 of their last 14 in all competitions and losing half of their last eight. In the Bundesliga, Austria Lustenau have claimed victory in 10 of their last 20, underlining their ability to pick up points both home and away.
On their travels, Austria Lustenau average 1.5 goals scored and concede 1.29 per game across their last 14 away. Ball possession is modest, at 48.43%, but their dangerous attack numbers stand out, with 57.43 per match showing a willingness to get forward and trouble opposition defenses.
Both clubs’ recent league matches back up the narrative of balance. Hartberg drew 3-3 with LASK Linz in their most recent outing, while Austria Lustenau earned a morale-boosting 2-0 victory over SCR Altach. While Hartberg’s attack has proven potent, their defending remains suspect, as reflected in the six goals conceded over the last three homes games. Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, followed heavy defeat to WSG Tirol by regrouping for a solid defensive performance against Altach, keeping a clean sheet for the first time in four contests.
Looking at probable lineups based on recent selections and available players, the most consistent formations appear likely:
Hartberg:
Goalkeeper: Ármin Pécsi
Defenders: Paul Komposch, Fabian Wilfinger, Konstantin Schopp, Manuel Pfeifer
Midfielders: Benjamin Markus, Youba Diarra, Angelo Gattermayer, Oliver Lukic, Tobias Kainz
Attackers: Marco Hoffmann
Austria Lustenau:
Goalkeeper: Domenik Schierl
Defenders: Danilo Soares, Niklas Pertlwieser, Emmanuel Chukwu, Fabian Gmeiner
Midfielders: Dion Kacuri, Dominik Weixelbraun, Lord Afrifa, Seydou Diarra, Albin Gashi
Attackers: Antonio Verinac
Given the weight of recent history and current form, it is little surprise that statistical models see the most likely outcome as a draw, with a 35% probability for the match to end level. The sides have played out three draws in their last five Hartberg-hosted meetings and both have shown resilience and efficiency in attack lately.
With Hartberg having failed to win in 10 of their last 12 Bundesliga home matches and Austria Lustenau’s away record showing both strengths and vulnerabilities, another close affair should be expected. High-scoring draws have not been unusual for Hartberg, who have participated in two consecutive 2-2 league draws and a recent 3-3. Austria Lustenau’s attacking threats, coupled with Hartberg’s tendency to find the net despite defensive lapses, add weight to expectations of goals at both ends.
Neither side comes into this match with clear supremacy in recent history, making this contest one where tactical details and conversion in key moments may just separate the teams. A fourth consecutive draw between the pair at this venue would fit the trends displayed in their historic and current records.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | |||||
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Rapid Wien | 18 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
2 |
RB Salzburg | 17 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
3 |
LASK Linz | 16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
4 |
Sturm Graz | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
5 |
SV Ried | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
6 |
Hartberg | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
7 |
WSG Tirol | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
8 |
Austria Lustenau | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
9 |
Grazer AK | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -10 |
10 |
Austria Wien | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 |
11 |
Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
12 |
SCR Altach | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 |
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