Alanyaspor Seek Home Momentum Against Erzurumspor

Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB - 10/10/2026

09/21/2026 70

There is a sense of anticipation as Alanyaspor host Erzurumspor FK at Alanya Oba Stadium on October 10, 2026. Alanyaspor have started the Süper Lig campaign with solid momentum, while promoted Erzurumspor arrive with renewed belief after a narrow home win.

Key Points

• Alanyaspor have taken 11 points from their opening six Süper Lig matches and remain unbeaten at home this season.
• Erzurumspor have improved with two wins in three, but their away results still show one goal scored and seven conceded in three league trips.
• Paolo Fernandes, Ivan Cedric and Baran Ali Gezek have quickly become important parts of João Pereira’s refreshed Alanyaspor setup.
• Miguel Cardoso scored Erzurumspor’s winner against Samsunspor and should keep his place in Serkan Özbalta’s 5-4-1.
• The prediction is Alanyaspor to win, with a 47% home-win probability and a 3-1 scoreline.

Previous Encounter

The last time these sides faced off dates back to May 2021, when Erzurumspor edged a dramatic 3-2 victory away at Alanyaspor. The contest saw Efecan Karaca strike twice from the spot for Alanyaspor, only for Elbasan Rashani to respond with a brace of his own. Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç delivered the decisive blow in the 84th minute, ensuring all three points traveled to Erzurum. Historical statistics from that match are unavailable, but the scoreline tells its own story about the fine margins that defined their previous meeting.

Recent Form

Alanyaspor have shown mixed but generally steady form over their last six matches. Three wins, two draws and only one defeat put them in a strong place, averaging 1.33 goals scored and conceding just one per game. At home, their numbers are even more encouraging, with João Pereira’s side beating Beşiktaş and drawing with Göztepe in their first two home league fixtures.

On the opposite side, Erzurumspor's last six have delivered a less convincing narrative. They have secured two wins and a draw but suffered three defeats, managing a meager 0.5 goals per match and leaking 1.83 on average. Their attacking output, especially away from home, is a concern, netting only 0.33 per match with over two conceded in each of their first three road games.

Main Trends

Alanyaspor's underlying trends reflect their resilience and efficiency. Four wins from their last eight in all competitions, undefeated in 83% of their last six outings, and clean sheets in 8 of their previous 20 home games all highlight their strengths. They have also avoided defeat in their first two home league matches of 2026-27, a useful platform for a side sitting in the upper half after six rounds.

Erzurumspor possess some positive longer-term trends after winning promotion under Serkan Özbalta, who guided them back into the top flight before signing on again for the new campaign. However, recent away slips are notable: five winless in their last six away matches across the wider run and defeats at Amedspor and Beşiktaş already this season. Defensive lapses remain pronounced when they are asked to chase games.

Overall Performance

Alanyaspor's consistency is reflected in solid shot and possession metrics. Over their last six games, they average nearly 11 shots and three on target per match. Their home fixtures have shown more attacking volume, complemented by a more settled 3-4-3 structure and a front line now strengthened by summer arrivals.

Erzurumspor, meanwhile, struggle to trouble opposition defenses. Their last six have yielded just nine shots per contest with only 2.5 hitting the target. Possession rarely exceeds 43%, and their attacking stats dip even further away from home, averaging fewer than two shots on target in their last three on their travels.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Alanyaspor continue under João Pereira, whose renewed squad includes Paolo Fernandes, Ivan Cedric, Baran Ali Gezek, Omar Ben Ali and Emre Demir. Fernandes has already scored in the league, while Arda Usluoğlu strengthened his case with the late winner at Çorum FK. Even so, Pereira is expected to stay close to the side that won 2-1 in Çorum, with Usluoğlu offering a strong bench option.

Alanyaspor probable XI: Paulo Victor; Fatih Aksoy, Fidan Aliti, Nuno Lima; Florent Hadergjonaj, Baran Ali Gezek, Gaius Makouta, Ruan; Ivan Cedric, Hwang Ui-jo, Paolo Fernandes.

Erzurumspor’s promotion core has been reinforced by major additions including Nihad Mujakic, Miguel Cardoso and Elisha Owusu. Cardoso’s goal against Samsunspor gave Erzurumspor their second 1-0 home win in three matches, and Özbalta is likely to retain the compact 5-4-1 shape that delivered that result.

Erzurumspor probable XI: Ertuğrul Taşkıran; Orhan Ovacıklı, Amar Gerxhaliu, Mustafa Yumlu, Nihad Mujakic, Guram Giorbelidze; Martín Rodríguez, Brandon Baiye, Elisha Owusu, Miguel Cardoso; Eren Tozlu.

Prediction

Given Alanyaspor's recent reliability at home, combined with Erzurumspor's travel woes and lack of cutting edge up front, Alanyaspor enter this clash as favorites. The predicted probability for an Alanyaspor win stands at 47%, with a likely tactical edge coming from their balanced midfield and a more regular flow of goals. A 3-1 result in their favor seems plausible if trends hold.

Main Trends

Key statistics tip the scale: Alanyaspor have remained undefeated in six of their last seven home matches. Erzurumspor have failed to win in five of their last six away, amplifying the challenge ahead of them this round.

Conclusion

Superior home form, tactical stability, and recent scoring trends position Alanyaspor well for their Süper Lig outing. Unless Erzurumspor dramatically improve their attacking production away from home, Alanyaspor are in pole position to collect another three points at the Alanya Oba Stadium.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

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Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

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Score

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coef.

Tr1

Alanyaspor Erzurum BB 10/10/2026 15:00

473221

13-1

3 - 1

3.10

59°F

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