Football is Mathematics
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As Rizespor prepare to face Fenerbahçe at the Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, the Süper Lig clash offers a fascinating contrast: a home side seeking greater consistency and a visitor lifted by a record-breaking attacking display.
Looking back at previous meetings in Rize, the statistics indicate a hurdle for the hosts. Rizespor have only managed a single win in their last 9 home matches against Fenerbahçe, with 7 losses and just 1 draw in that span. It has been a location where the visitors have often asserted their authority.
The wider head-to-head picture still favours Fenerbahçe, although the most recent meeting in April finished 2-2 in Istanbul. Rizespor have shown they can compete in this matchup, but Fenerbahçe’s record in Rize remains the clearest historical trend.
Assessing home performance, Rizespor have secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches across all competitions, averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Their attacking effort has produced about 5 shots on goal a match with a comfortable average possession over 55%.
However, their fortunes dip when focusing on their most recent home outings. In their last 3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor are without a win, managing 1 draw and 2 losses, with a worrying scoring rate of just 0.67 goals per match while conceding 1.67. The pressure is clearly on to turn this around.
Fenerbahçe have had an uneven league start under İsmail Kartal, but their ceiling was underlined emphatically in the latest round. After a 0-0 draw at Gaziantep, they dismantled Eyüpspor 8-0, moving to 10 points after six matches and restoring momentum before the international break.
On the road, the visitors maintain one of the best away profiles in the league, undefeated in 87% of their last 30 away outings in all competitions. Impressively, they have come away with wins in 61% of their last 28 away trips, scoring nearly 2 goals per match and conceding less than 1.
Offensively, recent results have been overwhelming. In their latest league fixture, Fenerbahçe dismantled Eyüpspor 8-0. Vedat Muriqi scored four times, Mason Greenwood struck twice, and İrfan Can Kahveci and Mattéo Guendouzi also found the net. That response was particularly important after the goalless draw in Gaziantep and the 1-1 Champions League draw with Roma.
Contrast that to Rizespor's most recent Süper Lig games, where they scored twice at Göztepe and won 2-0 away to Eyüpspor, but have otherwise struggled to convert chances, especially at home. Statistical trends hint at productivity struggles in front of goal, with Rizespor unable to score in two of their last three at home.
Defensively, Rizespor have allowed a concerning number of dangerous attacks, and goalkeeping heroics have often kept matches competitive. Their most recent 0-1 home defeat to Alanyaspor came despite commanding 64% possession, pointing to inefficiency in the final third.
Recep Uçar should again build Rizespor around Yahia Fofana, Attila Mocsi, Modibo Sagnan, Taylan Antalyalı, Qazim Laçi and Ali Sowe. Valentin Mihaila served his ban after the red card at Eyüpspor, while Khusniddin Alikulov remains the main injury concern. The back line could again feature a compact shape, with Tayyip Talha Sanuç competing with Zakaria Ariss and Taha Şahin for a starting place.
Rizespor probable XI: Yahia Fofana; Mithat Pala, Attila Mocsi, Tayyip Talha Sanuç, Modibo Sagnan, Zakaria Ariss; Taylan Antalyalı, Qazim Laçi, Ibrahim Olawoyin, Emrecan Bulut; Ali Sowe.
Fenerbahçe are expected to stay close to the side that overwhelmed Eyüpspor, although the Champions League trip to Aston Villa shortly afterwards may influence minutes. Jayden Oosterwolde remains sidelined after surgery, while Mert Hakan Yandaş is suspended. Marco Asensio has returned to the squad, but after the balance shown by Greenwood, Kahveci and Kerem Aktürkoğlu behind Muriqi, Kartal has little reason to force him straight into the XI.
Fenerbahçe probable XI: Ederson; Nélson Semedo, Milan Škriniar, Nathan Aké, Archie Brown; N'Golo Kanté, Mattéo Guendouzi; Mason Greenwood, İrfan Can Kahveci, Kerem Aktürkoğlu; Vedat Muriqi.
The key change from some earlier patterns is the front four. Muriqi’s four-goal performance makes him the clear centre-forward choice, while Greenwood’s directness and Kahveci’s creativity give Fenerbahçe a sharper attacking balance than in the draw at Gaziantep.
Given Fenerbahçe’s superior away record, stronger squad depth and recent attacking fireworks, the probability stands at 52% for a Fenerbahçe win as predicted by algorithm models. Rizespor will look to defy the trends and have improved in their last two league outings, but the data still points to Fenerbahçe setting the tempo and likely returning home with three points.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | |||||
| 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |
| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Amedspor | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
2 |
Galatasaray | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
3 |
Besiktas | 12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
4 |
Kocaelispor | 12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
5 |
Alanyaspor | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
6 |
Fenerbahçe | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
7 |
Trabzonspor | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
8 |
Kasımpasa SK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
9 |
Rizespor | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
10 |
Gaziantep | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
11 |
Çorum Belediyesi | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
12 |
Erzurum BB | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -8 |
13 |
Basaksehir | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
14 |
Genclerbirligi | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -8 |
15 |
Konyaspor | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 |
16 |
Samsunspor | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 |
17 |
Göztepe Izmir | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 |
18 |
Eyüpspor | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -14 |
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Barcelona W have won their last 25 Primera Division Women games in a row
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Malta U21 are on a losing streak of 19 straight matches in Euro U21 Qualification
Their last 11 games in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland have seen FK Karlskrona win by 2 or more goals
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