Frosinone Aim to Extend Home Dominance Against Depleted Lecce

Frosinone vs Lecce - 10/29/2026

10/26/2026 367

As Serie A reaches matchday nine, Frosinone and Lecce meet at the Stadio Benito Stirpe with contrasting moods. The hosts remain one of the division’s early surprises after another goal-heavy display, while Lecce arrive short-handed after a difficult defeat to Juventus.

Key Points

• Frosinone sit sixth on 14 points after eight games and have scored 17 Serie A goals.
• Alvini’s side drew 4-4 at Atalanta last time out, with Romano Schmid scoring twice and Aleksa Terzic rescuing a point.
• Lecce have nine points from eight matches and come into this after a 2-0 home defeat to Juventus.
• Gaspar is suspended for Lecce, while Ivan Ilić, Lassana Coulibaly and Santiago Pierotti remain unavailable.
• The locked prediction is over 2.5 goals, Frosinone to win 3-1, with a 45% home-win probability.

Recent History

The last time these two met in Serie A, it was a tightly contested affair, finishing 1-1 in March 2024. That encounter showcased Frosinone's attacking intent, as they registered 15 shots, 7 on target, and dominated possession with 64%. Lecce, though outplayed on paper, made the most of their time on the ball, managing 4 shots on target from 11 attempts, and ultimately salvaged a point with a fortuitous own goal by Cerofolini after Cheddira's earlier strike. Frosinone’s 63 dangerous attacks to Lecce's 26 underlined their territorial dominance, even if the scoreline painted a picture of parity.

Recent Form

Frosinone enter this game in sixth, with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a goal difference of +4, and 17 goals scored from 8 games. Their form in front of goal, averaging 2.13 goals per match, has been one of their biggest strengths. Notably, in their last six league matches, Frosinone have picked up 3 wins and 2 draws, losing just once while averaging 2.33 goals scored per outing.

On home soil, Frosinone have been nearly flawless of late, sealing 3 consecutive wins and averaging 3 goals while conceding just 1.33 per game in those fixtures. Adding to their confidence is an imposing 75% win record in their last 12 Serie A home matches, while remaining undefeated in 27 of their past 30 league matches at the Stirpe.

Lecce, meanwhile, have seen trickier waters. They sit 12th, having won 3 and lost 5, yet to draw a match this campaign. Their tally of just 9 goals scored is in stark contrast to the 14 conceded, leaving them with a negative goal difference. Over the last six outings, the team picked up 2 wins and suffered 4 defeats, netting 1.17 goals and conceding 1.67 per game.

Recent results on the road offer little comfort for Lecce. They have lost 60% of their last 30 matches across all competitions and have endured a 43% rate of defeats by 2 or more goals over their previous 7 league fixtures. However, there have been bright spots, such as their 3-0 away win at Udinese, demonstrating they can be clinical when opportunities present themselves.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Looking at the tactical picture, Frosinone are expected to keep Massimiliano Alvini’s familiar 4-2-3-1, which gives them stability and a clear attacking shape. The consistency in recent selections suggests another start for Lorenzo Palmisani in goal, with Oyono, Calvani, Cittadini and Bracaglia across the back. The midfield pivot should see Masini and Calò, supported by Ghedjemis, Schmid and Kvernadze, while Antonio Raimondo will lead the line. Schmid’s first Serie A double at Atalanta strengthens his claim to remain central to the attack, while Terzic is pushing hard after scoring off the bench in Bergamo.

Frosinone probable starting XI: Lorenzo Palmisani; Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Calvani, Giorgio Cittadini, Gabriele Bracaglia; Giacomo Calò, Patrizio Masini; Farès Ghedjemis, Romano Schmid, Giorgi Kvernadze; Antonio Raimondo.

Lecce, managed by Eusebio Di Francesco, are likely to stick close to their recent 4-3-3 despite a growing absentee list. Ivan Ilić, Lassana Coulibaly and Santiago Pierotti are out, while Berisha is also not expected back. Gaspar is suspended after his stoppage-time red card against Juventus, and Tiago Gabriel is a major doubt after being forced off with a knee knock, so Siebert and Ndaba are expected to come into the back line. Wladimiro Falcone should start in goal, with Danilo Veiga and Antonino Gallo at full-back. Kaba, Ngom and Maleh should cover midfield duties, while Amar Fatah, Willem Geubbels and Konan N’Dri make up the attacking trio.

Lecce probable starting XI: Wladimiro Falcone; Danilo Veiga, Jamil Siebert, Corrie Ndaba, Antonino Gallo; Mohamed Kaba, Oumar Ngom, Youssef Maleh; Amar Fatah, Willem Geubbels, Konan N’Dri.

Prediction

Expect a contest where midfield battles determine the direction of play, especially given Frosinone’s shooting volume and Lecce’s occasional defensive fragility. Frosinone’s home record and attacking output put them in a strong position, and their 4-4 draw at Atalanta featured 24 total shots and 10 on target.

With both teams showing a tendency for goals, the prediction leans towards over 2.5 goals, with Frosinone favored to win and a 3-1 scoreline a distinct possibility. The probability for a home victory stands at 45%.

Home team
Away team

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Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

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It1

Frosinone Lecce 29/10/2026 18:30

452332

13-1

3 - 1

3.22

63°F

-154

-154 +300 +400 down no up

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