Football is Mathematics
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Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 9
When Parma face Udinese at Stadio Ennio Tardini, both sides find themselves in desperate need of points to halt worrying spells at the bottom end of Serie A. Each team enters the contest with just one win from eight league games, setting the stage for a battle where neither can afford another setback.
Parma’s season has been one of frustration. Sitting 19th, they have collected only four points so far, winning just once and drawing once in their opening eight matches. Their attack has struggled, producing only 0.63 goals per game, while their defense has leaked an average of 1.88 per match.
Their recent home record offers little solace, with one win, one draw, and one loss in the last three matches at Ennio Tardini. They managed 1 goal per match but conceded 1.67, and their possession averaged 46.33%, reflecting their ongoing difficulty in wrestling control from opponents.
Across all competitions, Parma have tasted defeat in eight of their last 12 outings, going winless in 80% of their previous 10 games. They have also failed to win 10 of their last 12 Serie A matches, with three defeats by margins of two goals or more in just the last seven league encounters. Offensively, they average only 3.58 shots on goal and 42.17% possession in their last dozen games.
For Udinese, the situation is strikingly similar. Their six consecutive losses in all competitions have them only slightly better off in 17th place, separated from the drop zone by goal difference alone. The team has averaged 1.13 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per match while also experiencing a nine-game winless spell from their previous 11 in Serie A.
Despite posting 51.33% ball possession and 4 shots on goal per match in the last six, Udinese have been unable to convert efforts into positive results, conceding 2.5 goals per game during this recent skid. Their only win in the current league campaign came away from home, offering a slim sliver of hope ahead of this matchup.
The last three head-to-head meetings slightly favor Udinese, who have won two of those matches, while Parma claimed one victory. Both teams will remember recent encounters for their narrow margins, typically decided by limited attacking output and defensive errors.
Looking at individual displays, Parma’s recent home loss to Torino was a snapshot of their season: despite outshooting Torino 25 to 9 and dominating possession, they fell to a 3-0 defeat, highlighting issues with conversion and defensive frailty. Parma then lost 2-1 at Lazio, although Simone Lontani’s stoppage-time goal at least gave Gilardino a late positive from the bench.
Udinese, meanwhile, are coming off a 2-0 home loss to Milan, part of a spell that has seen them lose by two or more goals in 43% of their last seven games across all competitions. Runjaic did regain Zaniolo from the bench, and the forward is expected to play more minutes at Parma, but Udinese still look fragile whenever opponents turn pressure into shots.
Injuries could influence the team sheets. Parma are set to be without Pontus Almqvist and Nesta Elphege, with Almqvist recovering from a calf problem and Elphege sidelined after surgery for acute appendicitis. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia has also been absent, while Adrian Bernabe returned from the bench against Lazio and should be in contention to start.
Parma’s most likely shape remains a back three under Gilardino, with Edoardo Corvi in goal and Enrico Delprato, Diego Carlos and Mariano Troilo forming the defensive base. El Bilal Touré and Giovanni Fabbian are major attacking additions who should remain central to Parma’s plan, although Matija Frigan and Lontani are pushing for minutes after recent substitute involvement.
Parma Probable Starting 11
Goalkeeper: Edoardo Corvi
Defenders: Enrico Delprato, Diego Carlos, Mariano Troilo
Midfielders: Sascha Britschgi, Mandela Keita, Adrian Bernabe, Emanuele Valeri
Attackers: Giovanni Fabbian, David Romero, El Bilal Touré
Udinese’s issues are more widespread. Idrissa Gueye is unavailable after ankle surgery, while David Alaba’s calf strain is a notable setback so soon after his arrival as a high-profile free agent. Vakoun Bayo has also been missing, Alessandro Zanoli was absent against Milan, and Oumar Solet’s recent fitness concerns leave Kabasele, Palma and Abankwah well placed to continue in the back three.
Runjaic used a 3-4-2-1 against Milan, with Keinan Davis leading the line and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp and Giorgi Chakvetadze in support. Piotrowski’s return to the starting XI was another positive, while Zaniolo’s comeback gives Udinese a potentially important attacking option, even if a start may come too soon.
Udinese Probable Starting 11
Goalkeeper: Maduka Okoye
Defenders: James Abankwah, Christian Kabasele, Jose Luis Palma
Midfielders: Mërgim Vojvoda, Jakub Piotrowski, Jesper Karlström, Hassane Kamara
Attackers: Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Keinan Davis
Given the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides and recent goal-scoring numbers, a narrow victory is predicted for Parma, who are tipped to prevail 2-1 in front of their own goalposts. The probability of a Parma win stands at 46%, reflecting just a slight edge for Gilardino’s men as they seek to end their poor run.
This fixture brings with it a sense of urgency, both for the standings and to reestablish confidence after extended periods of disappointment. Both sides are hoping that this could be the turning point in a challenging campaign.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Inter | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
2 |
Lazio | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
3 |
Roma | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
4 |
Milan | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
5 |
Calcio Como | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
Juventus | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
7 |
Frosinone | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
8 |
Torino | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
9 |
Cagliari | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
10 |
Napoli | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
11 |
Atalanta | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
12 |
Lecce | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
13 |
Bologna | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
14 |
Sassuolo | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
15 |
Monza | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
16 |
Genoa | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 |
17 |
Udinese | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
18 |
Fiorentina | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
19 |
Parma | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Venezia | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 |
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