Football is Mathematics
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Roma return to the Stadio Olimpico aiming to reinforce their impressive Serie A start as they meet Cagliari on 27 October 2026. After a dramatic 3-3 draw at Napoli, Gian Piero Gasperini's side set their sights on another three points against a Cagliari team trying to halt a recent slide.
The recent history between these clubs makes for an intriguing subplot. Roma have taken two wins and suffered one defeat against Cagliari in their last three Serie A encounters, reflecting a slight upper hand in this fixture.
Roma's season has been built on a strong foundation at both ends of the pitch. They occupy third in the table, undefeated after eight matches, with five wins and three draws. Their goal difference stands at a commanding +13, having scored 19 times and conceded just six.
At the Olimpico, Roma's sharpness has been evident. Their recent home form includes a 2-0 win over Genoa and a convincing 4-0 victory over Fiorentina, while the 2-2 draw with Inter highlighted both their firepower and resilience.
Defensively, Roma have displayed authority. Trends see them undefeated in 83% of their last 30 matches in all competitions, and they have kept clean sheets in 58% of their last 12 at home. Within Serie A, their home invincibility is even more pronounced, remaining undefeated in 90% of their last 20 and winning 70% of those.
Cagliari, meanwhile, arrive with contrasting fortunes. Sitting ninth, they have four wins, one draw and three losses from eight league games. Their output in front of goal has been limited, with only six scored and nine conceded.
Their recent away form has been patchy. Cagliari have managed three victories and suffered two defeats in their last six but are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. In their last two league matches, they failed to find the net, falling 4-0 at Monza and 2-0 at home to Bologna.
Cagliari's away record shows some grit but also vulnerability. They managed an impressive 1-0 win at Udinese, absorbing pressure and protecting a narrow lead, but the heavy defeat at Monza underlined their problems when opponents stretch the game.
In terms of head-to-head, Roma have historically held the edge, winning three of the last five meetings against Cagliari and prevailing by two or more goals in three of the last seven clashes.
Roma are expected to continue in Gasperini's 3-4-2-1 shape. Mile Svilar remains absent, so Pierluigi Gollini should continue in goal, while Manu Koné and Lorenzo Pellegrini are unavailable and Paulo Dybala is not expected to be risked after his calf problem. Bryan Cristante has returned to the midfield picture, and Balerdi's two-goal rescue act at Napoli gives him a strong claim to start.
Roma
Goalkeeper: Pierluigi Gollini
Defenders: Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Leonardo Balerdi
Midfielders: Wesley, Marten de Roon, Bryan Cristante, Nahuel Molina
Attackers: Matías Soulé, Rodrigo Mora, Donyell Malen
Malen remains the focal point of the attack, with Soulé's goal at Napoli reinforcing his place behind the striker. Santiago Castro, Niccolò Pisilli, Devyne Rensch, Mario Hermoso and Konstantinos Koulierakis are all viable rotation options given the short turnaround.
Cagliari are expected to keep a compact 4-3-2-1 structure. Long-term absentees Riyad Idrissi and Mattia Felici remain out, while Harry Winks is a major doubt after leaving the Bologna match with a back issue. That opens the door for Roberto Gagliardini in midfield.
Cagliari
Goalkeeper: Elia Caprile
Defenders: Zé Pedro, Yerry Mina, Juan Rodríguez, Adam Obert
Midfielders: Alessandro Romano, Roberto Gagliardini, Michel Adopo
Attackers: Alieu Fadera, Daniel Maldini, Paul Mendy
Daniel Maldini remains Cagliari's main creative threat, while Fadera could add pace around Mendy as Pisacane searches for a response after back-to-back defeats.
Roma have the measure of consistency and recent form, bolstered by an attack that has averaged over two goals per game and a defense that has proven difficult to break down, especially at home. In contrast, Cagliari have found goals hard to come by and are winless in three of their last matches. The algorithm predicts a Roma win with a 47% probability, which aligns with their strong trends.
With Roma having not lost in 85% of their last 20 Serie A matches and Cagliari struggling to find their cutting edge, all signs suggest Roma should maintain their unbeaten record as they aim to stay firmly entrenched in the top three.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Inter | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
2 |
Lazio | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
3 |
Roma | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
4 |
Milan | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
5 |
Calcio Como | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
Juventus | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
7 |
Frosinone | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
8 |
Torino | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
9 |
Cagliari | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
10 |
Napoli | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
11 |
Atalanta | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
12 |
Lecce | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
13 |
Bologna | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
14 |
Sassuolo | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
15 |
Monza | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
16 |
Genoa | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 |
17 |
Udinese | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
18 |
Fiorentina | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
19 |
Parma | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Venezia | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 |
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