Football is Mathematics
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Sassuolo face a serious test as high-flying Lazio arrive in Emilia-Romagna for Serie A’s ninth round. The home side have work to do after a rough patch, while Lazio are looking to extend an unbeaten start and maintain pressure at the top of the table.
This fixture at the MAPEI Stadium brings together teams with very different trajectories. Sassuolo, in 14th place, are struggling to find lasting momentum, collecting just two wins from their opening eight matches. With a run of four league games without a victory, the hosts must quickly reverse their fortunes to halt a worrying slide.
In their last six Serie A outings, Sassuolo have a single win, two draws and three defeats, scoring 1.5 goals per match but conceding an average of two. Defensive issues persist, underscored by the 4-2 loss to Frosinone and a 2-0 defeat at Como which exposed gaps across the back line and midfield. Their 1-1 home draw against Milan showed resilience, yet they struggled to assert control with only 41% possession in that match.
Sassuolo's home form offers some encouragement. They have not lost in their last three matches on home turf and have been undefeated in 80% of their last ten Serie A home matches. Across all competitions, they have been unbeaten in 83% of their last twelve in Reggio Emilia.
Historically against Lazio at home, Sassuolo have claimed four wins in their last ten meetings with the Biancocelesti, drawing once and losing five. However, they have lost two of the last five home clashes by a margin of two or more goals, signaling the visiting side’s recent strength in Reggio Emilia.
Looking at overall trends, Sassuolo have lost 50% of their last 14 matches in all competitions and have been winless in six of their last seven. The team have particularly lacked resilience in league competition, failing to win in 82% of their last eleven Serie A games, a sequence that has left them treading water above the relegation places.
Lazio, by contrast, are in bullish form. Gennaro Gattuso’s squad are undefeated in eight Serie A matches and have won five of their last six, netting an average of two goals per game while conceding less than one. Away from home, they have already delivered a statement result, winning 3-0 at Juventus.
The visitors’ recent league performances show both consistency and control. A 3-0 away victory at Juventus and a 2-1 win over Parma showcased sharp attacking play and strong defensive structure, with Christos Mandas seldom troubled between the posts. Lazio have scored at least twice in six straight Serie A matches, underlining the attacking rhythm Gattuso has quickly built.
Lazio’s sustained form has propelled them to 22 points from eight matches, keeping them firmly in the title conversation. Their average possession rate of 53.5% this season indicates a side comfortable dictating play both at home and on the road.
Injury reports affect selection for both sides. Sassuolo are without Jay Idzes, Ismaël Koné, Fedde Leysen and Daniel Boloca, meaning adjustments in defense and midfield are likely. Nemanja Matić is expected to be available after being withdrawn against Como, while Domenico Berardi, Armand Laurienté and Sebastiano Esposito should carry the main attacking threat.
Sassuolo probable XI: Turati; Cinquegrano, Caleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig; Adžić, Matić, Thorstvedt; Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté.
Arijanet Murić is pushing to return in goal, but Stefano Turati has a strong case after starting at Como. Kristian Thorstvedt, who scored at Frosinone, is also a serious contender for midfield minutes in Alberto Aquilani’s 4-3-3.
Lazio are still expected to be without Albert Gudmundsson, Nicolò Rovella and Adam Marušić. Andrea Pinamonti has been recovering from illness and is more likely to be a bench option against his former club, while Matteo Cancellieri and Danilo Cataldi add rotation options during a congested week. Isaksen and Taylor have strengthened their claims with decisive recent goals, and Davide Frattesi has quickly become central to Gattuso’s midfield.
Lazio probable XI: Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Nuno Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni.
Gattuso may consider some rotation after the Parma win, particularly at full-back and in attack, but Lazio’s strongest recent setup points toward the same 4-3-3 spine that has driven their unbeaten start.
Given the algorithm predicts a Lazio win with 62% probability, the Biancocelesti are favored, especially considering their ongoing undefeated streak and Sassuolo's recent defensive leaks. Sassuolo's home resilience offers hope, but their current form leaves Lazio well-placed to claim three points and continue their chase at the Serie A summit.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Inter | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
2 |
Lazio | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
3 |
Roma | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
4 |
Milan | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
5 |
Calcio Como | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
Juventus | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
7 |
Frosinone | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
8 |
Torino | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
9 |
Cagliari | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
10 |
Napoli | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
11 |
Atalanta | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
12 |
Lecce | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
13 |
Bologna | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
14 |
Sassuolo | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
15 |
Monza | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
16 |
Genoa | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 |
17 |
Udinese | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
18 |
Fiorentina | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
19 |
Parma | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Venezia | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 |
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