Borussia M'gladbach Face Paderborn Hoping to Halt Bleak Home Run

Borussia M'gladbach vs Paderborn - 10/31/2026

10/26/2026 124

Borussia M'gladbach line up against Paderborn at Borussia-Park with both sides eager to shape different directions for their seasons. The Foals have finally stopped their losing start under Alexander Blessin, while promoted Paderborn carry the confidence of a stubborn away profile into this Bundesliga fixture.

Key Points

• Borussia M'gladbach claimed their first league points of the season with a 3-2 win at Stuttgart.
• Paderborn are unbeaten in 10 of their last 12 away games in all competitions.
• Wael Mohya scored and assisted in Gladbach's latest win, while Joe Scally and Shuto Machino also struck.
• Paderborn have kept Tigges and Marino together in attack, with Rayan Philippe pushing after his late winner against Hamburg.
• The locked prediction is Borussia M'gladbach to win 3-2, with over 2.5 goals and a 35% home-win chance.

Recent Form

Borussia M'gladbach approach this match after a turbulent spell. Their last six league matches have brought only one win, with five ending in defeat. It is a sequence marked by defensive fragility, as they have conceded an average of over 3 goals per match in this stretch.

At home, the challenges are even more glaring. Borussia M'gladbach have lost all of their past three fixtures at Borussia-Park, averaging 2.33 goals scored but a concerning 3.33 goals conceded in that sequence. Despite showing attacking intent and producing over 18 shots on average at home, defensive lapses have left them vulnerable.

Recent match data further illustrates their volatility. Their last outing brought a 3-2 win away at Stuttgart, with Mohya involved in two goals, a rare bright spot after a dreadful start. Before that, they fell 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim and 2-1 at Köln. Matches against Mainz and Elversberg at home, both ending in 4-3 defeats, highlight a trend of high-scoring but ultimately unsuccessful games on their own turf.

The broader league picture over 30 matches gives little respite. Borussia M'gladbach have lost 15 times in that span and have gone winless in 80% of their last 15 Bundesliga fixtures. While their attack remains capable, with 1.67 goals per home match over their last 15, the defense continues to ship goals at a worrying rate.

Paderborn Form and Head to Head

Paderborn, meanwhile, arrive having proven themselves difficult to beat away from home. In their last 12 road games in all competitions, they have finished undefeated in 10. Their ability to claim draws is clear with half of their last twelve away fixtures ending level, but they also maintain a tight defense, conceding just 1.33 goals per away game in this run.

Most recently, Paderborn edged Hamburger SV 1-0 at home through Rayan Philippe's late goal, following a gritty 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen. Although they did fall 2-0 at home to Stuttgart earlier in October, Ralf Kettemann's side have looked increasingly comfortable competing at Bundesliga level.

Head to head between Borussia M'gladbach and Paderborn is relatively sparse in recent years, but M'gladbach have won both of the last two home encounters. Moreover, the hosts have claimed victory in two of the last three meetings overall, with three of the last four wins coming by a margin of 2 or more goals.

Team News and Probable Lineups

The list of absentees could play a decisive role. Borussia M'gladbach have recently been without Tim Kleindienst, Enzo Leopold, Fritz Fleck, Jan Leszczynski and Isac Lidberg, while Franck Honorat, Ko Itakura, Jens Castrop and Nicolas Kühn have been working back towards full availability. Kevin Diks missed the Stuttgart win for personal reasons rather than injury, so Alexander Blessin's defensive selection may depend on whether he is ready to return.

Borussia M'gladbach probable XI: Moritz Nicolas; Daiki Hashioka, Kevin Diks, Fabio Chiarodia; Joe Scally, Zento Uno, Florian Neuhaus, Lukas Ullrich; Wael Mohya, Hugo Bolin; Shuto Machino.

Machino should keep the central attacking role after scoring in Stuttgart, with Mohya and Bolin likely to support him. Scally's goal from wing-back strengthens his claim to another start, while Diks would add experience to a back line that has been patched together in recent weeks.

Paderborn have had fewer selection headaches. Timur Gayret, Marcel Hoffmeier, Oliver Batista Meier, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant and Sebastian Klaas were the main recent absentees, but Kettemann has been able to preserve a stable core. The unchanged XI that beat Hamburg was also the side that drew 2-2 at Bremen, making continuity the likeliest route again.

Paderborn probable XI: Nahuel Noll; Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen; Laurin Curda, Santiago Castañeda, Raphael Obermair; Laurin Ulrich, Gabriel Vidovic; Stefano Marino, Steffen Tigges.

Marino and Tigges remain the preferred front pair after both scored in Bremen, although Philippe is pressing hard after deciding the Hamburg match from the bench. Noll's recent form in goal has also been important to Paderborn's resilience.

Prediction

The algorithm prediction points towards a goal-laden encounter, with a likelihood for over 2.5 goals and Borussia M'gladbach projected as the most probable winners with a 35% chance and a 3-2 scoreline.

All considered, Borussia M'gladbach's recent home woes present an opportunity for Paderborn to impose their away prowess. Yet, the Foals’ positive historical results in this fixture, their breakthrough win at Stuttgart and their need for a resurgence could tip the scales in their favor. Goals are forecast with both sides likely to find the net throughout the 90 minutes at Borussia-Park.

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Borussia M'gladbach Paderborn 31/10/2026 16:30

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