Football is Mathematics
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Recent results paint two vastly different pictures for Udinese and Roma. While Udinese search for a turnaround, Roma arrive in Udine aiming to reinforce their impressive run near the top of Serie A.
Heading into the clash at the Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese's record raises significant concerns. With just 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9 league outings, they sit precariously in 17th. Their goal difference stands at a worrying -9, having scored 9 times but conceding 18, an average of 2 goals against per fixture.
Comparing their form to Roma's brings the contrast into sharp relief. Roma have claimed 6 wins and 3 draws from their 9 league matches to date and remain undefeated, holding 3rd place. They boast a goal difference of +15, having scored 23 and let in only 8.
Udinese's home struggles are particularly evident. Not only have they lost all of their last 3 home matches, but they failed to score in any of them, conceding 6 in total. Across their last 16 Serie A home fixtures they have gone winless in 13, a daunting trend before facing one of the league's most productive attacks.
Statistically, Udinese have suffered 5 defeats in their last 6 games and have not managed a victory in any of their last 7. Their 0-0 draw at Parma at least ended a six-game losing streak, with Maduka Okoye saving a penalty and Nicolò Zaniolo returning to the starting lineup.
Roma, on the other hand, have not been defeated in 11 of their last 12 matches across all competitions and have lost none of their last 12 Serie A games. They are also strong travellers, undefeated in 9 of their last 11 away matches. Roma have repeatedly shown they can win by clear margins on the road, even if their recent defensive openness gives Udinese some encouragement.
Head-to-head encounters also lean Roma's way. Over the last 10 meetings, Roma have come out on top 7 times, with Udinese claiming only 2 wins and 1 draw. Most recently, Roma have won 2 of the last 3 clashes between these sides.
Recent match data further emphasizes the divide. Udinese's 0-0 away result at Parma was a rare bright spot following losses to Milan, Lecce and Cagliari while failing to score across their last three home matches. Although they often see more possession and put up double-digit shot tallies, their conversion remains an issue.
Roma's recent form is driven by attacking depth. They put four past Cagliari and Fiorentina and netted four more at Lecce. Even when they share points, such as the 3-3 draw at Napoli, they maintain high shot counts and impressive possession numbers. Donyell Malen's scoring impact has added another major selection question after his late goal helped seal the 4-2 win over Cagliari.
In squad news, Udinese remain without David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo, while Oumar Solet and Alessandro Zanoli are fitness concerns. Nicolò Bertola came off at Parma and is also a doubt, so Kosta Runjaic is likely to keep a back three built around James Abankwah, Christian Kabasele and Matteo Palma. There are no confirmed Udinese suspensions for this fixture.
Udinese's probable starting eleven in their 3-4-2-1 formation:
Goalkeeper: Maduka Okoye
Defenders: James Abankwah, Christian Kabasele, Matteo Palma
Midfielders: Mërgim Vojvoda, Jesper Karlström, Lennon Miller, Hassane Kamara
Attackers: Nicolò Zaniolo, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Keinan Davis
Zaniolo's return gives Udinese a badly needed ball-carrier between the lines, while Davis should again lead the attack after going close at Parma. Giorgi Chakvetadze and Jakub Piotrowski are strong alternatives if Runjaic wants more creativity or midfield security.
Roma must cope without first-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar, Manu Koné, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paulo Dybala. Pierluigi Gollini should continue in goal, while Gian Piero Gasperini has enough depth to choose between Santiago Castro and Malen in attack. Svilar, Koné, Pellegrini and Dybala are the key current absences, but Roma's attacking output has stayed strong without them.
Roma's expected starting lineup in a 3-5-2 setup:
Goalkeeper: Pierluigi Gollini
Defenders: Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Konstantinos Koulierakis
Midfielders: Emanuele Lulli, Bryan Cristante, Marten de Roon, Niccolò Pisilli, Nahuel Molina
Attackers: Matías Soulé, Donyell Malen
Malen's finishing form makes him difficult to leave out, while Soulé offers creativity around the box. Castro and Rodrigo Mora, both involved in recent goals, give Gasperini high-impact options if he chooses to manage minutes after a busy run of fixtures.
Roma enter this encounter as clear favourites, with algorithm models estimating a 63% likelihood they take all three points. Udinese will have to disrupt Roma's fluid attacking play and address their own scoring drought if they are to stand a chance of salvaging their current campaign. The locked prediction remains Roma to win at 63%.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Inter | 25 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
2 |
Lazio | 25 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
3 |
Roma | 21 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
4 |
Calcio Como | 20 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
5 |
Milan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
Frosinone | 17 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
7 |
Napoli | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
8 |
Juventus | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
9 |
Torino | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
10 |
Cagliari | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 |
11 |
Atalanta | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 |
12 |
Bologna | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
13 |
Genoa | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 |
14 |
Lecce | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -9 |
15 |
Sassuolo | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 |
16 |
Monza | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 |
17 |
Udinese | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 |
18 |
Fiorentina | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 |
19 |
Parma | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Venezia | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 |
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