Milan Host Inter in Crucial Derby with Top Spot Implications

Milan vs Inter - 10/31/2026

10/30/2026 50

Serie A's fiercest rivals, Milan and Inter, renew hostilities at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday night. Inter lead the table after a record-breaking start under Cristian Chivu, while Ruben Amorim's Milan are fifth and trying to respond after their first league defeat of the season.

Key Points

• Inter have taken 25 points from nine Serie A games, matching Lazio at the top and boasting the league's strongest attack with 25 goals.
• Milan won the last two league derbies 1-0, including the March meeting settled by Pervis Estupiñán.
• Marcus Thuram arrives in sharp form for Inter, while Alphadjo Cissé has strengthened his Milan case after scoring twice against Bologna.
• The locked prediction is over 2.5 goals, a 3-2 Inter win and a 47% probability of an away victory.

Previous Encounter

The last time these two sides met, on March 8, 2026, Milan came out on top by a slender 1-0 margin. Pervis Estupiñán's 35th-minute strike proved decisive, despite Inter dominating large portions of the match. The visitors enjoyed 63% possession and attempted more total shots, 11 to Milan's 9, but both sides managed only two shots on target apiece, underlining how Milan's rearguard held firm under persistent Inter pressure.

Statistically, Inter's territorial advantage was significant, but they failed to convert that into clear chances. Milan have now won the last two Serie A derbies by the same 1-0 scoreline, a trend that gives them belief even with Inter arriving in stronger league form.

Overall Performance

Heading into this fixture, Inter are setting the pace at the top of Serie A with eight wins and a draw from nine games, scoring 25 times and conceding 10. That is an average of 2.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per league game and a goal difference of +15. Milan, while fifth, have also impressed at times: five wins, three draws and only one defeat in nine, netting 18 and allowing 11 for a goal difference of +7.

Recent Form

Milan's last six matches show three wins, a draw and two losses, with an average of two goals scored per match but 1.67 conceded. Their 4-2 home defeat to Bologna exposed defensive fatigue and interrupted an unbeaten league start, although Alphadjo Cissé's two-goal display has given Amorim a genuine selection decision in the attacking line. Inter, meanwhile, have won five of their last six and followed a 2-1 success over Fiorentina with a 2-0 win at Venezia, where late own goals settled a difficult game.

Main Trends

For Milan, 82% of their last 11 Serie A matches ended without defeat. At home, they have claimed 50% wins in the last six and kept clean sheets in 40% of their last 20 home league games. They have, however, lost half of their last eight at the Meazza and three of their last six home matches against Inter.

Inter's numbers are formidable: undefeated in 87% of their last 15 in all competitions and 85% of their last 20 away, with a 45% rate of winning by two or more goals in those away games. In Serie A specifically, they have avoided defeat in 29 of their last 30, winning 75% of their past 40 league matches overall.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Milan have received a timely boost, with Mario Gila, Adrien Rabiot and Diego Moreira back in contention after returning to group work. Saelemaekers, Matteo Gabbia, Samuel Chukwueze, Pietro Terracciano and Ruben Loftus-Cheek remain out, while Fikayo Tomori is a doubt after his thigh problem against Bologna. There are no active Milan suspensions.

Milan probable XI: Mike Maignan; Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Pervis Estupiñán; Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot; Omari Hutchinson, Christian Pulisic, Diego Moreira; Gonçalo Ramos.

Amorim must balance freshness with quality after a heavy midweek defeat. Modrić and Pulisic were managed against Bologna and should return, while Cissé, Musah and Bartesaghi remain strong alternatives if Milan choose more legs in midfield or on the left.

Inter are still without captain Lautaro Martínez, while Benjamin Pavard, John Stones, Curtis Jones and Luis Henrique are also set to miss out. Chivu has no active suspensions, but the absence of Lautaro remains the biggest blow, especially in a derby where he has so often been decisive.

Inter probable XI: Josep Martínez; Yann Bisseck, Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni; Andy Diouf, Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Federico Dimarco; Marcus Thuram, Francesco Pio Esposito.

Josep Martínez is expected to return in goal despite Ivan Provedel's strong recent displays. Barella and Çalhanoğlu should also come back into the midfield after being used from the bench at Venezia, while Thuram has been involved in goals consistently enough to carry Inter's attack without Lautaro.

Prediction

Inter's unbeaten run has hit 87% in their last 15 games across all competitions, and their league dominance is hard to ignore. Milan have only lost once in the league and claimed a resolute win in the previous head-to-head, but Inter's attacking firepower and defensive solidity, alongside extensive squad depth, grant them the edge.

The algorithm predicts over 2.5 goals, with a likely scoreline of 3-2 in Inter's favor and a 47% probability of an away win. In a Derby della Madonnina that often produces memorable moments, the data points to Inter maintaining their grip at the league summit, though Milan's resilience suggests they could push their rivals all the way.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

It1

Milan Inter 31/10/2026 20:45

242947

22-3

2 - 3

3.46

59°F

-105

+260 +275 -105 no no no

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