Milan Seek Revenge Against Atalanta After Spring Defeat

Milan vs Atalanta - 10/18/2026

10/16/2026 1152

Milan gear up for a demanding Serie A fixture at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza as Atalanta return after May’s 3-2 win at San Siro. Ruben Amorim’s side remain unbeaten in the league and have just won 4-0 in Salzburg, while Maurizio Sarri’s Atalanta arrive lifted by victories over Venezia and Pafos.

Key Points

• Milan have taken 12 points from their first six Serie A matches and are still unbeaten in the league.
• Atalanta ended a run of three straight league defeats by beating Venezia 3-1, with Nikola Krstović scoring twice.
• Alphadjo Cissé hit a European hat-trick in Salzburg, but Milan are still expected to bring back Christian Pulisic and Gonçalo Ramos from the start.
• Eljif Elmas is suspended for Atalanta, while Franck Kessié, Giorgio Scalvini and Giacomo Raspadori are among their current injury concerns.
• The locked prediction is Milan to win, with a 57% home-win probability and 2-1 the most likely score.

Recent History

The last meeting between Milan and Atalanta remains vivid in memory. On May 10, Atalanta edged out Milan 3-2 at San Siro. Éderson struck in the seventh minute, Davide Zappacosta doubled the lead before half-time and Giacomo Raspadori made it 3-0 early in the second half, before Strahinja Pavlović and Christopher Nkunku pulled Milan back into the contest late on.

That contest was marked by Atalanta’s sharpness in the final third and Milan’s late reaction. Milan are without a Serie A win over Atalanta in six meetings, so the Rossoneri have both table pressure and recent history to answer here.

Recent Form

Ruben Amorim’s side have started with a mix of control and frustration. Milan opened Serie A with wins over Torino, Venezia and Lecce, while also drawing with Juventus, Lazio and Sassuolo. Their latest league outing was a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo, where Adrien Rabiot scored before Odenthal levelled from a set-piece scramble.

Milan have taken 12 points from six league games without losing, but converting dominance into victories remains the task. Their mood improved in Europe, as a 4-0 win at Salzburg featured a superb Alphadjo Cissé hat-trick and a late Gonçalo Ramos goal, before attention turned back to Serie A and another European away trip to Bournemouth.

Where Milan have built a point-accumulating habit, Atalanta have blown hot and cold. Sarri’s team began with wins over Sassuolo and Bologna, then lost to Roma, Cagliari and Juventus before responding with a 3-1 home win over Venezia.

That Venezia game brought a badly needed spark. Franck Kessié scored early and Nikola Krstović followed with a first-half brace, underlining why he is pushing ahead of Gianluca Scamacca in the centre-forward discussion. Atalanta also beat Pafos 3-1 in the Conference League, but further fitness problems left Sarri short in several areas.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Injuries influence the lineup for both teams. For Milan, Alexis Saelemaekers is sidelined by an ankle problem and Matteo Gabbia is out after being forced off on a stretcher with a muscular injury at Sassuolo. That should keep Koni De Winter in the back line, while Luka Modrić, Pulisic and Ramos are expected to return to the XI after being managed in Salzburg.

Milan probable XI: Mike Maignan; Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović; Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupiñán; Diego Moreira, Christian Pulisic; Gonçalo Ramos.

Amorim has recently leaned on a 3-4-2-1 shape, with Pulisic operating close to Ramos and Moreira offering direct running between the lines. Cissé’s hat-trick makes him an important weapon from the bench, but the short turnaround should still favour the more established front three.

Atalanta are without Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, Kamaldeen Sulemana and Thomas Pompei, while Scalvini is not expected to recover in time. Kessié has joined the absentee list with a calf issue, Raspadori suffered another muscular problem against Pafos and Elmas will miss the trip through suspension after his red card against Venezia.

Atalanta probable XI: Marco Carnesecchi; Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Lorenzo Bernasconi; Gianluca Gaetano, Éderson; Charles De Ketelaere, Mario Pašalić, Jonathan Rowe; Nikola Krstović.

Sarri’s 4-2-3-1 looked sharper against Venezia, and Elmas’ suspension should keep Pašalić central behind the striker, with De Ketelaere shifted to the right. Krstović’s movement and confidence make him the natural focal point after his two-goal league display.

Prediction

The predicted outcome favors Milan, with a 57% probability for a home win and a most likely score of 2-1. Recent form at the Meazza and Milan’s unbeaten league start, combined with Atalanta’s defensive issues and Elmas’ suspension, suggest Amorim’s men could overturn May’s setback and take all three points on their own patch.

Prediction: Milan to win 2-1.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

It1

Milan Atalanta 18/10/2026 18:00

572319

12-1

2 - 1

2.65

63°F

-152

-152 +310 +375 no no no

FT

3 - 2(2 - 0)

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