Football is Mathematics
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A fresh Serie A round offers Udinese a challenging home fixture against a Milan side brimming with confidence and form. With the hosts sliding towards the bottom end of the table and Ruben Amorim’s unbeaten Rossoneri pushing in the top four, Bluenergy Stadium will stage Milan's drive to maintain their impressive streak and Udinese's attempt to change fortune.
Looking at the previous encounter between these sides, Milan suffered a surprising setback on home turf, falling 0-3 to Udinese last April. Despite controlling 63% possession and firing 20 shots, Milan found little joy breaking down Udinese, who were clinical through a Davide Bartesaghi own goal, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp and Arthur Atta. The match highlighted Udinese’s ability to absorb pressure, using quick transitions and efficient finishing to punish Milan’s forward forays.
However, recent results show a notable shift. Udinese have lost five league matches in a row, highlighting a worrying trend at both ends of the pitch. Their latest setback, a 0-3 home reverse to Lecce, was particularly damaging: they had the ball for long spells but were badly exposed and failed to turn possession into genuine threat.
Stretching the lens further, Udinese have struggled to make Bluenergy Stadium a fortress and now find themselves under pressure near the relegation places. Five consecutive Serie A defeats have left Kosta Runjaic’s side 17th with only four points from seven games, increasing scrutiny around both the defence and the balance of the team.
Milan, in contrast, have settled into a rhythm. Amorim’s side are unbeaten in Serie A this season and arrive after a 3-2 win over Atalanta in which Gonçalo Ramos, Adrien Rabiot and Mario Gila scored. They had also impressed in Europe days earlier, winning 4-0 away to Salzburg as Alphadjo Cisse struck a hat-trick and Ramos also found the net.
Milan have taken 15 points from their opening seven league matches, scoring regularly while conceding at a manageable rate. The one caution is workload, with another Thursday European fixture in the same week likely to influence Amorim’s final selection.
Udinese are expected to retain their 3-4-2-1 structure. Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo are unavailable, while James Abankwah is also a concern. There are no active suspensions. David Alaba started the defeat to Lecce but is expected to drop out, with Nicolò Bertola joining Oumar Solet and Enzo Ebosse in the back three. Zanoli’s return from the bench against Lecce offers another option, but Mërgim Vojvoda and Hassane Kamara remain the likely wing-backs.
Udinese Probable Lineup: Maduka Okoye; Nicolò Bertola, Oumar Solet, Enzo Ebosse; Mërgim Vojvoda, Oier Zarraga, Jesper Karlström, Hassane Kamara; Giorgi Chakvetadze, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp; Keinan Davis.
Milan are likely to continue with the 4-3-3 used against Atalanta, although Amorim’s system can still look like a 3-4-3 in possession. Alexis Saelemaekers and Matteo Gabbia remain out, Pietro Terracciano is a doubt and Milan have no active suspensions. Cisse’s hat-trick in Salzburg has strengthened his case for minutes, but Christian Pulisic, Gonçalo Ramos and Samuel Chukwueze remain the most likely front three after starting the latest league win.
Milan Probable Lineup: Mike Maignan; Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Diego Moreira; Yunus Musah, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot; Samuel Chukwueze, Gonçalo Ramos, Christian Pulisic.
The most important correction to Milan’s shape is Diego Moreira’s role: he is expected to operate from left-back in a back four rather than as a conventional winger, with Musah adding legs alongside Modrić and Rabiot in midfield. Gila’s goal against Atalanta and Ramos’s scoring form also strengthen their starting claims.
In summary, Milan’s strong form and Udinese’s struggles make the visitors clear favorites to extend their undefeated run. The probability points in Milan’s favor at 55%, with the most likely scoreline predicted as 2-1 for the Rossoneri. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring clashes, and over 2.5 goals are expected. Unless Udinese can rediscover the clinical defending and counter-attacking prowess from their previous spring upset, Milan look poised to take three points at Bluenergy Stadium.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Inter | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
2 |
Lazio | 22 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
3 |
Roma | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
4 |
Milan | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
5 |
Calcio Como | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
Juventus | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
7 |
Frosinone | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
8 |
Torino | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
9 |
Cagliari | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
10 |
Napoli | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
11 |
Atalanta | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
12 |
Lecce | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
13 |
Bologna | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
14 |
Sassuolo | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
15 |
Monza | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
16 |
Genoa | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 |
17 |
Udinese | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
18 |
Fiorentina | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
19 |
Parma | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 |
20 |
Venezia | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -11 |
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